Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

413
FXUS63 KDLH 230839
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
239 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally quiet weather for most today into Sunday.

- Chance for light snow Sunday night into Monday night. Amounts
  from a trace to around 3". There is a 70-90% chance for 1"+
  along the Iron Range and north as well as the snow belt of the
  South Shore. The chance for 4"+ is less than 25 percent for
  all but some isolated areas of northern Minnesota.

- No large storm systems currently expected in the extended
  period and temperatures will cool after Sunday with much
  colder air arriving late week. Highs by Friday will be 5 to
  15 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Today into Sunday:

An upper ridge just off to the west of the region this morning
will move east and through the Northland tonight with a
shortwave approaching on Sunday. Most will see dry conditions or
only very light precipitation through Sunday. There was an area
of light snow moving east out of southern North Dakota into
central and western Minnesota. Forecast soundings are initially
dry but the RAP does show saturation occurring briefly this
morning which may lead to some light snow or flurries over far
southern parts of the Northland. Some spotty flurries are
possible as well in far northern Minnesota today. Highs will be
in the thirties.

Guidance is quite mixed on whether there will be precipitation on
Sunday and we backed off some on POPs following model trends.
However, there will be a shortwave and warm air advection affecting
the Northland and we have some flurries/sprinkles going along
with some low POPs in far northern Minnesota and along the North
Shore. The North Shore POPs are for a combination of lake and
terrain enhancement. It will be a bit warmer Sunday with highs
from the lower thirties to around forty.

Sunday night through Tuesday:

Chances for light snow, with a light mix over northwest Wisconsin,
will increase Sunday night into Monday. QPF has trended down
slightly and there is still significant uncertainty among all the
guidance from deterministic to the ensemble members with how this
shortwave and resulting area of low pressure and inverted trough is
handled. The ECMWF is more bullish with QPF but even among its
ensemble members there are large differences. There does seem to be
a general trend of lower snow amounts in southwest portions of the
Northland including the Brainerd Lakes. We have snow amounts from a
trace to 4" through Monday night with the highest amounts in the
snowbelt of Iron County into far northern Minnesota and lowest
amounts in the Brainerd Lakes. There is a 70-90% chance for 1"+
along the Iron range and north including the Arrowhead and south
into the snowbelt of the South Shore. Most will see chances for 4"+
of snow at less than 25% except slightly higher amounts along the
South Shore and in spots of far northern Minnesota.

Tuesday through Friday:

Colder air will be moving into the region during this time with
850MB temperatures ranging from 12-18 below zero by 00Z Saturday.

Lake effect snow will occur through much of the extended period with
winds west to northwest. These winds are not ideal for significant
lake effect snow but with such cold 850mb temperatures and lake
surface temperatures around 6C, there will be plenty of instability.
There is a weak clipper system dropping south Thanksgiving Day which
will aid in ushering in the cold air and will also bring some light
snow chances. Highs will drop through the week with highs on Friday
from 15 to 24F which is 5 to 15F below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Low MVFR to IFR ceilings over far northeastern Minnesota and
portions of northwest Wisconsin will continue through tonight
into Saturday morning. DLH is right on the edge of this stratus
due to downsloping just east of the airport, which has been
causing the ceiling to bounce up and down this evening.
However, since the MVFR stratus will remain in close vicinity to
the airport, so opted to just leave the TAF as MVFR all night.
BRD is VFR for the time being, but closer to morning, a narrow
band of frontogenesis will bring in brief MVFR ceilings and
possible flurries. These flurries will likely not reach the
ground due to a dry layer in the low levels, so left in VCSH for
the few hours they are expected. VFR conditions return Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 239 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Northwest winds will continue today at or  less than 15 knots.
Winds will then become easterly late tonight into Sunday,
increasing Sunday to 10 to 20 knots with some higher gusts.
Conditions will become hazardous for smaller vessels for much of
the nearshore waters with the highest wind/wave combination
occurring from Two Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the area.

The wind will back to north to northwest Monday with speeds
remaining 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Winds will increase a
bit more Monday night before decreasing Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Melde