Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS63 KDLH 111134
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
634 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog with isolated areas of dense fog this morning will
  disperse between 9am - 10am

- Precipitation chances return this weekend with some thunder
  potential on Sunday. A mix of snow is also on the table for
  northern MN on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Current Conditions/Tonight:

Areas of fog still engulf portion of the Northland with
visibilities as low as half a mile in southern Aitkin and
portions of Sawyer county. A SPS has been issued for this
locally dense fog. This fog will erode by late morning. The rest
of the day will see high pressure over the region with fair
weather cumulus developing in the afternoon. Highs are expected
to climb into 50s with some areas reaching the low 60s.

Saturday-Monday:

The warming trend continues to start the weekend as southerly flow
becomes more pronounced as surface high pressure exits to the east.
A surface low pressure will be cruising across central Manitoba with
some low level convergence possible across northern MN. This may
(15-25%) lead to some light rain. However, model soundings
showcase a very deep dry level in the lower atmosphere likely
leading to virga in the morning as the column tries to saturate.
CAMs also support this solution with reflectivities portrayed
in the morning with no QPF till the afternoon when the dry air
has been eroded.

The better chances for precipitation arrive on Sunday as a Colorado
Low moves into the Midwest. Warm air advection ramps up in the lower
levels with a little bit of steepening of the mid level lapse rates.
This will lead to a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the region
through the late morning and afternoon lending itself to some
isolated rumbles of thunder. No severe weather is expected at this
time.

The region still has one more wave of precipitation chances to get
through before a spell of quiet weather. An upper level low sinks in
behind the exiting Colorado Low late Sunday through Monday. With
this low coming in from the northwest it is expected to toss some
cooler air into the mix leading to some snow chances. While the
lower levels look to cool enough to produce dendrites by late Monday
morning the surface temperatures are largely expected to be well
above freezing. A rain snow mix looks to be the most likely outcome
at this juncture. By Monday night when cooling temperatures may
allow for some accumulation across far northern MN but even
that seems to be pretty minimal, largely expecting grassy
surfaces to see less than an inch of snow.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

The aforementioned system exits to the west leaving the region
in northwest flow. Lingering moisture on the backside of the
system could still instigate some showery activity in the
morning and some lake effect showers for the South Shore.
However, dry high pressure is expected to move in by the
afternoon decreasing PoPs. There is potential (20-30%) for
another wave of precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Areas of fog engulf the Northland this morning with the densest fog
over HYR. This fog is expected to disperse between 14-15Z. Lingering
VFR stratus is also expected to erode with time as dry air moves in
from the west. Upper level clouds will return late tonight with some
potential for sprinkles tomorrow morning at INL.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Southwest winds today will remain at or less than 10 knots. A low
pressure system will move through the region this weekend into early
next week bringing elevated easterly winds Saturday night into
Sunday with stronger west or northwest winds developing Monday.
There is a around a 20 percent chance for gales Monday, especially
along the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     007>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt