Burnsville, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS63 KMPX 211941
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
241 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers gradually shift south and diminish overnight.

- Mostly calm weather ahead, with warming temps, light winds,
  and little rain expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Today and Tomorrow... Cold, dreary conditions continue through
tonight with light rain and drizzle staying largely tied to the
stationary front across central MN and western WI. Hi-Res models
depict that front gradually sagging south and losing forcing
overnight. Depending on how quickly clouds start to clear from
north to south, areas of frost are possible in the far northern
portions of Todd, Morrison, Mille Lacs, and Kanabec counties. We
should warm up pretty quickly after sunrise though with only
partly cloudy conditions during much of the day. Western WI has
the best chance of seeing more widespread cu which could keep
highs closer to 60 rather than the mid 60s expected across MN.

Memorial Day Weekend... By Friday morning, the Upper Mississippi
Valley will be sandwiched between an upper ridge to the west and
troughing to the east. This will lead to a stretch of mostly
benign weather, with light E/NE-erly winds, periods of clouds,
and gradually warming temperatures. Highs will remain slightly
below normal, but will likely feel nice given our recent stint
of well below normal temps.

Do not be surprised to see some additional light rain at times
throughout the weekend. Long range guidance continues to suggest
that if we get a shortwave perturbation on the backside of the
eastern trough, that could provide enough lift for isolated to
scattered showers. Mid/low level moisture will be lacking
though, which should limit any overall impact.

Next Week... Our quiet weather is expected to continue, with
potentially more of a warming trend by mid-week. Height
anomalies at 500mb suggest a more amplified pattern, with deep
troughing over Alaska and coincident ridging across much of the
central & western US up into northern Canada. The latest run of
the NBM brings temps back to normal on Tuesday (highs in the
low 70s and lows in low 50s), and jumping above normal Wednesday
onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

It may be hard to believe, but we are on the gradual improvement
trend in conditions. There`s an inverted trough hung up just
north of the MN River. This wind shift will remain stationary
while also washing out this afternoon. This will keep the band
of dz/-ra we have in place more or less in place the rest of
today. Looking northeast of this feature, VFR conditions are
making faster than forecast progress to the southwest, so moved
up the return to VFR conditions by several hours at EAU/RNH,
with faster returns to VFR possible at STC & MSP. Due to their
proximity to the surface trough, RWF & MKT are still expected to
be the last sites to go back to VFR. Winds will remain light
this period, but will trend toward the north and northwest
overnight. For Thursday, we`ll start to see the sun again!

KMSP...Unfortunately, the band of dz/-ra will be stuck over MSP
much of the afternoon, though we may start seeing more
persistent VFR cigs by 00z and this precip dries up.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG