West Bloomfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS63 KDTX 021854
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant warming trend to continue through mid-week, with temperatures
  reaching well above specific normal values by tomorrow.

- Slow moving cold front to perhaps result in multiple rounds of
  showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the end of the week.
  Both significant rain amounts and some severe weather potential
  with this activity remains on the table.

- Seasonable conditions expected as we head into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Well advertised warm-up has begun in earnest across the Great Lakes
early this afternoon, driven by maturing southwest flow and nearly
full column warm air advection on backside of slowly departing Ohio
Valley high pressure. Combine the above with sun-filled skies
(although partially filtered by some passing high level smoke from
Canada wildfires), and temperatures are spiking will up into the 70s
this afternoon. Surface high pressure will continue to slide east,
taking up residence along the eastern seaboard Tuesday into
Wednesday. Direct connection to sub-tropical warmth will continue as
southwest flow further increases, with top-down thermal progs and
simple pattern recognition supporting high temperatures Tuesday well
up into the 80s. Low level moisture will slowly be on the increase
as well, with afternoon dewpoints likely nearing/exceeding
60F...helping it feel even a bit more uncomfortable. Otherwise, dry
conditions set to continue through the daylight hours Tuesday with
just some slowly increasing clouds and still some lingering smoke.

Moisture advection continues to increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a cold front works slowly southeast across Michigan.
Falling mid level heights and forced low level convergence working
on that increasingly moist environment (precipitable water values
look to exceed 1.50 inches by later Wednesday) looks to drive at
least a broken band(s) of showers and embedded thunderstorms from
west to east across southeast Michigan later Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Area remains in a marginal risk for both severe weather
and excessive rain Wednesday into Wednesday night given plentiful
moisture through the vertical and combination of increasing deep
shear and likely development of some diurnally-enhanced instability.

Questions increase and confidence decreases heading into the end of
the week, owning to increasing uncertainty on frontal placement and
potential for additional shortwave energy to ride northeast up along
it. Front will be the focus for additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, with pattern recognition supporting some higher end
rain totals from cell training and utilization of deep moisture.
Definitely something to monitor in the coming days with mid-range
ensemble spread of this front from the lower Ohio Valley to southern
Michigan (although latest progs are trending toward the former). Of
course, temperature trends will be highly predicated by frontal
placement and attendant showers. Either way, mid-week heat should be
lost, with highs Thursday and Friday mostly in the 70s.

Seasonably mild conditions expected to persist through the weekend.
Overall forecast confidence remains low for the weekend with regards
to additional shower chances, although latest trends support any
widespread and significant rain threat will have ended.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will continue to drift eastward, taking up residence
along the east coast Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwest flow will
continue to strengthen behind this high and a slowly approaching cold
front. Southwest winds will gust to around 25 knots ahead of the
front which will necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for a portion of
Lake Huron. The cold front will sweep through the region on
Wednesday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
More showers remain possible through the end of the week, with
latest trends supporting minimal wind and wave concerns Wednesday
night through Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI

AVIATION...

VFR through the period for all sites. Skies mostly FEW-SCT250 with
southwest winds AOB 10kts (KMBS seeing SW winds up to 15kts with
G19kts). S/SW winds continue tonight, but should diminish to ~05kts.
SW winds will pick up after 15Z for all sites becoming 10-15kts with
G20kts. Uncertainty with skies near the end of the period, most
likely FEW-SCT060 but could be BKN as more could CU develop ahead of
the next system.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Low chances for thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Uncertainty lies in timing of the arrival of moisture,
as a cold front will slowly move across the state Tuesday and
Wednesday. Some prefrontal convection could occur Tuesday
afternoon, but coverage should remain isolated and to the west of
KDTW. The cold front  should move through Wednesday, brining rain
and thunderstorms. Rain and low cigs will likely linger through
Thursday.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms from 20Z-00Z Tuesday, then medium from 22Z-
  06Z Wednesday.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB (APX)
MARINE.......MSB (APX)
AVIATION.....ELD (APX)


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.