Warren, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS63 KDTX 041926
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain tonight with thunderstorms this evening.

- Lingering rain chances Thursday/Friday.

- More wet weather Sunday and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Long wave troughing encompasses roughly
the western half of North America...with a blocking ridge over the
eastern Pacific along 140W.  Narrow short wave ridge axis running up
the eastern seaboard...while downstream pattern over the Atlantic
also looking more blocky.  Several PV anomalies rotating through the
mean trough position...lead short wave trough extends from western
Upper/Wisconsin/Illinois.  Ahead of this wave is a narrow axis of
deeper moisture across most of Lower Michigan/northern Illinois and
farther southwest into the lower Mississippi Valley...but with a
tight east-west moisture gradient across southeast Lower (1200Z APX
sounding precipitable water 1.45 inch).  Drier air spreading across
Upper Michigan/Wisconsin at early afternoon.  At the surface...cold
front slices across southeast Lower into northwest Indiana/central
Illinois...sandwiched between high pressure off the mid Atlantic
coast and over the central/southern Plains.

Upstream long wave trough doesn`t make much progress over the next
couple of days...cold front expected to push just south of Michigan
by Thursday morning as it becomes more parallel to upper level flow.
While the pressure pattern around the front weakens as high pressure
develops over the upper Lakes...baroclinicity remains over the Ohio
Valley through the remainder of the week but does push slowly
farther south over time.  Jet streak coming over the top of the
eastern Pacific ridge will push long wave trough remnants through
the upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes by Saturday...but in turn will
spin up (yet another this spring) closed low forecast to drop into
the upper Midwest in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Showers tonight with thunderstorms this evening: Cold front pressing
eastward across southeast Lower Michigan...along with an undular
bore that formed over Lake Huron this morning and now dropping
southeast across the Thumb/far southern Lake Huron.  Pre-frontal
convection bubbling up within an axis of 500-1000J/kg MLCAPE...
visible imagery also suggests a vorticity maximum moving into far
southeast Lower which should help things along.  Unidirectional wind
profiles and a fair bit of DCAPE (not a surprise looking at the
1200Z DTX sounding) suggests a conditional damaging wind threat
through around 0100Z (threat diminishing from north to south with
time). Post-frontal rainband stretches from central Lake Huron
southwest into southeast Missouri...which will impact the area for
most of the night and into Thursday morning.  High precipitable
water axis and slow rainband movement/echo training should provide
for some decent rainfall totals...elongated band of 0.50-1.00+ inch
rainfall totals from last night within this rainband so not
unreasonable to think similar rainfall amounts are in play in the
0000Z-1200Z time frame along and south of the I-69 corridor
(probabilities for exceeding 1 inch of rainfall in the 30-50%
range). So will continue to mention heavy rain potential across
roughly the southern half of the forecast area.

Lingering rain chances Thursday/Friday: Rainband is going to be slow
to push out of southeast Lower on Thursday...so while conditions
will improve farther north (decreasing clouds) rain is likely to
linger especially south of the I-69 corridor.  Will keep small rain
chances along the Ohio border Thursday night into Friday but the
trend in PoPs farther north is downward from yesterday`s forecast.

More wet weather Sunday and beyond: Rain chances will increase again
later Sunday into the start of next work week in associated with the
developing upper low and associated unsettled cold core weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have been shifting from southwest to northwest through the day
in the wake of a passing cold front...with winds expected to continue
with a northerly component through the next several days before
veering more southerly Sunday ahead of low pressure moving into
northwest Ontario. Beyond the lingering small craft conditions on
Lake St. Clair and the Michigan Lake Erie nearshore waters this
evening...headline criteria conditions not expected through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Front stretches from central IL to just north of KAZO to just north
of FNT. SHRA moving NW to SE along and behind this boundary, cloud
bases generally MVFR along the front, dropping to IFR behind (bases
800-1500ft). Expect TSRA to pop up this afternoon in the vc of Metro
Detroit from YIP to PTK to DET, including DTW...and possibly FNT.
Not expecting much beside rain at MBS. Afternoon showers/ts will be
followed by additional rain this evening; conditions to largely drop
to IFR overnight under this...non-zero ts threat but not as favored
as this afternoon. Slow improvements toward afternoon from NW to
SE. Winds through tonight diminishing to around 5kts, generally N to
NE behind the front; lingering 15-25kt gusts near DTW/DET/YIP till
this evening. NE winds expected Thursday around 10kts.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.

Lake Huron...None.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this
evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPB
MARINE.......JPB
AVIATION.....FEF

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