Warren, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

660
FXUS63 KDTX 161957
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
357 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather today and Thursday with temperatures falling into the
mid 20s to lower 30s tonight.

- Scattered to numerous showers with possible thunderstorms Thursday
night, leading to a much warmer day on Friday with highs well into
the 70s.

- There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Friday evening into
early Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Confluent flow aloft and inbound longwave ridging maintain a
subsident profile across the area through tonight, drying the column
and allowing high pressure to move in. This favors mainly clear
skies through the night with the dry air and strong radiational
cooling response sending lows into the 20s outside of the Metro
area, where lower 30s will be more likely. The ridge axis passes
over the region on Thursday, bolstering southerly return flow and
rebounding temperatures into the lower to mid 60s by the afternoon.

Upstream, a positively tilted trough comprised of at least three
distinct shortwave features will coalesce over the western CONUS.
This setup strengthens a baroclinic zone across the Plains with a
southwesterly jet streak emerging from the Four Corners into the
Great Lakes. This will drive an elevated warm front across the area
with clouds increasing late in the day Thursday. An increasing
chance for showers arrives late in the evening and overnight as a
slug of deeper moisture displaces the resident dry air. There is
increasing confidence that the nose of the LLJ will be focused north
and west of the area, evident in 12z ensemble probabilities that
show contraction of the higher QPF axis toward northern Lower MI
compared to the 00z/06z runs. Will continue to carry up to 2 tenths
of an inch across the north with lower QPF around Metro Detroit and
south.

The early Friday morning precip will be followed by a stout EML
arriving from the High Plains, characterized by 700mb temps soaring
to near 7 to 8C across the south. This places most of the area under
a strong cap as low-level southwest flow strengthens ahead of
several waves of low pressure developing along the upstream frontal
zone. Very warm and moist air will advect into the area to make it
feel more like summer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. NBM
indicates a 20% probability to exceed 80 degrees for parts of the
area. Guidance is still supportive of MLCAPE on the order of 1000
J/kg as dew points inch near 60F, but ensemble QPF has trended drier
given the strength of the cap in place. Adjusted PoPs down during
the day but maintained a 30% chance north of I-69 closer to the warm
front where the cap/EML will be weaker. If any storms do form during
the day, EBWD of around 40 kt atop the stable layer would support
the potential for them to produce large hail.

The better chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday
evening into early Saturday when the cold front arrives from the
west. If the front arrives early enough and with enough time to
utilize some of the waning instability, severe weather and all
hazards would be possible given the bulk shear of 50 to 60 kt and 35
to 45 kt LLJ contributing to relatively high low-level SRH. SPC
continues to highlight the area in a slight risk. NAEFS progs
maintain an anomalously high mean integrated WV transport vector
across the area which suggests any showers and storms could produce
heavier rainfall rates as well. More seasonable temperatures settle
into the area this weekend as high pressure builds into the northern
Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure stays in control for the rest of today as winds and
waves subside below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Quiet weather
continues into Thursday while winds shift to the southeast under the
departing high pressure center. Pattern shift begins Thursday
afternoon as an organized low pressure system lifts into the Upper
Midwest. Presence of the warm frontal slope and low level jet
impulses will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm chances early
Friday morning as well as an uptick in winds/waves. The increasingly
warm/unstable airmass allows shower and thunderstorm chances to
continue into the weekend, while SE Michigan remains under a Slight
Risk for severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

AVIATION...

High pressure influence has manifested across the terminals this
afternoon providing a marked improvement in ceilings as MVFR
stratocumulus has since scattered-out. This leaves a sparse/patchy
cumulus field for the rest of the diurnal cycle as upper-level
stability/subsidence maintains a dry atmospheric column into
Thursday. Northwesterly winds gusting 20-25 knots decrease
significantly by this evening, becoming light and variable late
tonight into Thursday. A period of SKC is expected before high
cirrus starts to spill in Thursday morning while maintaining VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Surface flow organizes from the
south-southeast Thursday as surface ridging departs ahead of inbound
low pressure moving across The Plains.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....KGK


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