Sterling Heights, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

492
FXUS63 KDTX 301049
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
549 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today as temperatures climb into the 40s across most of
Southeast Michigan.

- The next system will bring rain late tonight through Friday. Some
cooler air later in the day could change the rain over to a
rain/snow mix or even all snow. Some freezing rain will be
possible mainly north of M-46.

- There is a chance of rain and snow Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry low level conditions maintained in southerly flow will keep
skies clear across the lowest 5000 ft through this evening. Some
intervals of high cloud around at times. Winds peaking just above 10
knots this afternoon. Low level moisture rapidly increases near or
just after midnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Warming conditions at the same time will allow for associated
inbound precipitation to arrive as rain Friday morning. Widespread
IFR with possible LIFR expected throughout the Friday morning
period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less after 04z tonight.

* High for ptype of rain tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

DISCUSSION...

Warm day today as amplifying shortwave ridge ahead of a large cutoff
low slides up through the region. Strong warm air advection will
raise 850mb temps from -9C Wed up to +5C by this afternoon while
shunting the 0C line up across the Straits. Overall a pleasant day
with mainly high clouds to contend with as moisture advection up the
elevated warm front start passing over. Warm air hold through the
overnight with most locations south of I-69 holding at or above
freezing.

This all leads to the main story in the extended as the cutoff low
drifts across the Ohio Valley while becoming an open wave. Models
are in good agreement that the far northern extent of the precip
shield within the region of the warm conveyor belt will begin nosing
into southern MI tonight, but will have a deep layer of dry air to
contend with, up to around 10-15kft. Top down saturation will take
time before rain can start to fall. Once it does, all rain is
expected for most of southern MI as temps are above 0C up through
about 7kft at least to around I-69. There is some cooler air at the
surface leading some models to advertise freezing rain, but think
with the amount of dry air in place these models are presenting
mostly virga. Overall shift southward, tightening of the precip
shield over the area also reduces chances of this by keeping
moisture out of the cooler boundary layer. As we head through the
day Friday, a cold front will be dropping south through Mid MI
further capping the northern extent of the precip, and also helping
to focus a potentially strong fgen band in the deformation region of
the passing low over SE MI. Current guidance supports the fgen band
to tighten in the vicinity of M59, increasing precip rates and QPF
in the window from 18-00Z Friday afternoon. Being later in the event
with cold air advection cooling the entire column, there will likely
be some rain/snow mix, possibly changing to all snow for a period
before moisture pushes east. Local probs center suggest 1-2 inches
most likely across the M59 corridor, but also show the non-zero
chance of exceeding 3 inches. Will shift the swath of near 2 inches
totals to this area but as we get more into the hires model
windows additional tweaks will be likely. All in all QPF totals
remain in the 0.25 to 0.75 inch range as PWATs may exceed 0.75
inches with plume of 3 g/kg of specific humidity advecting in.
Models have shifted south overall currently keeping locations north
of M46 fairly dry.

High pressure centers over Ontario for Saturday with winds veering
from north to easterly through the day. Little in the way of thermal
advection in either direction with zonal flow moving in aloft and
850mb thermal trough sliding east all resulting in slightly below
normal max temps up to around 30.

Next system to track through the region comes Sunday. A weak
shortwave in advance of a stronger wave shearing out, will cross
lower MI in the afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the low will once
again usher in much warmer air up into the 40s for many locations.
Models produce precip early in the afternoon while the column is
still on the cool side so snow or a rain/snow mix will be possible
for a few hours.

MARINE...

Moderate south-southwest flow developing this afternoon into
tonight, but a warm advection pattern will increase near surface
stability, as 925 MB temps rise above 2 C across southern Lake
Huron/Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. Subsequently, low pressure
tracking through the Ohio Valley late thursday night-Friday will
bring predominately rain to the region.

North-northeast winds will follow the passage of this low pressure
system, with wind speeds peaking out in the 20-25 knot range Friday
evening, allowing for large waves to build over the southern Lake
Huron Basin. Another surface ridge arriving for Saturday will allow
winds to become light before moderate southerly flow develops for
the second half of the Weekend.

HYDROLOGY...

Light rain will overspread southeast Michigan tonight and persist
through most of Friday, becoming moderate in the afternoon. The rain
will mix with and possibly change over to snow later Friday
afternoon. Total liquid equivalent precipitation amounts of a quarter
to three quarters of an inch are possible. The higher amounts have
shifted north and are now centered between I-94 and M-59.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SC/DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.