Meridian, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS63 KGRR 202321
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
721 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainy through Wednesday, then mostly dry for the weekend

- Chilly through Friday, then a warming trend develops

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

- Rainy through Wednesday, then mostly dry for the weekend

Regional radar shows an arcing band of rain from Minnesota
southeast across Lower MI moving north. All areas of the cwa have
seen rain except the far northeast, but the rain will arrive there
within the next hour or two.

The forecast is largely on track as a surface low over Iowa
combines with an inverted upper trough to push moisture northward
across the cwa. There is some convection over IL that`s trying to
move north. But limited instability on the north side of the low
track will limit how far north it gets. It`s possible that a non
severe storm or two could sneak into the far southwest cwa later
this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, the storm track
across northern IL/IN still looks pretty good. The cwa will be
largely on the north side of the track which will feature a brisk
easterly wind. Winds have been gusting over 30 mph west of US-131
but will diminish later this evening as the low gets closer and
the pressure gradient relaxes. It`s going to take another day
before the surface low moves east of the cwa and so widespread
light rain will continue Wednesday. Showers may continue into
late Thursday/early Friday over the eastern cwa due to a strong
sort wave pinwheeling around the upper low and mainly affecting
eastern Lower MI; the western cwa should remain dry late Thursday
into Friday.

The upper low is progd to shear out and lift north Friday and
continue through the weekend and be replaced by high pressure.
Thus, we`ll begin to see some sunshine develop from west to east
Friday.

- Chilly through Friday, then a warming trend develops

The upper low and surface low moving through the Midwest will
continue to create chilly conditions on the north side of the low
track. Highs in the 50s are expected through Friday due to an
easterly flow from Ontario. Once the lows move east and heights
rise, temperatures will begin to rise into the 60s by Saturday.
Even that, though, will be 5 to 10 degrees below the normal
highs in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

The widespread rain across all of the terminals continues this
evening. So far, sub VFR conditions have been limited to just some
of the heavier downpours, with VFR dominating. We are now starting
to see more widespread MVFR ceilings coming in south of the I-94
terminals, and even some isolated IFR. The trend will be for
these lower ceilings to move in over the next few hours, and the
IFR overnight. The rain will not be as widespread, but on and off
showers will continue. Once the IFR ceilings move in overnight,
they are expected to hold in over the area for the remainder of
this forecast period. Showers will continue with some fluctuation
in visibilities expected. This won`t matter much with ceilings
already low.

The winds have come down a bit from their peak speeds earlier.
They will remain up a bit, especially over western areas. Eastern
areas may see the wind gusts end, and just keep a steady wind from
the ENE around 10-12 knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Gale warning remains in effect until 5 pm south of Whitehall.
Buoys are gusting well over 30 knots in this area and so there are
no changes to the warning. Winds are expected to diminish below
gales later this afternoon and a small craft advisory is in effect
for all nearshore zones from 5 pm until 2am tonight.

Wind will increase again Thursday and another advisory may be
needed Thursday and Friday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...04