Ann Arbor, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

264
FXUS63 KDTX 111100
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
700 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with a warming trend over the weekend, but
  temperatures only back around normal.

- After a mild day (low to mid 60s) on Monday, westerly winds gusting
  near 40 mph usher in much colder temperatures, resulting in
  temperatures back below normal for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure to the west and north of SE Mi maintains N-NE surface
to cloud layer wind today. The wind pattern is directing a plume of
mostly MVFR ceiling across the terminal corridor this morning which
gives way to increasingly dry air toward afternoon. The dry air is
reinforced as high pressure builds into Lower Mi tonight and
maintains clear sky across SE Mi. This occurs as low clouds remain
nearby to the east of DTW across Ontario toward sunrise Saturday.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

DISCUSSION...

Amplified upper level trough east of the Mississippi River Valley,
with the trough axis/heart of the cold air (-6 C at 850 MB) exiting
the Central Great lakes today. Thus, today will be milder, with
guidance temps suggesting highs around 50 degrees.

Warm advection pattern for the weekend with elevated warm
front/modest destabilization/moisture advection potentially enough
to touch off a few showers on Sunday (less than 25 percent), as PW
values increase to around 1 inch. A better chance Sunday night (30-
40 percent) as the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge becomes fully
established over the region, with a slight chance of thunderstorms as
steeper mid level lapse rates translate through.

Upper level energy moving onshore of Pacific Northwest/British
Columbia, with the strengthening 500 MB height fall center moving
into the Western Great Lakes Sunday night. Nearly stacked lows
progged to track through Lake Superior and Northeastern Ontario on
Monday. Pronounced mid level dry slot with this mature system
progged to slide through southern Lower Michigan, thus the
associated cold front certainly may come through dry during Monday.
Excellent cold advection then kicks in, with 850 MB temps lowering
into the negative high single numbers by Tuesday morning,
potentially kicking off snow/rain showers with the cyclonic
flow/steep low level lapse rates and lake enhancement. Otherwise,
winds looks to be the main impact, with a chance for wind gusts aoa
40 mph, supported by the mean of the Euro ensembles.

MARINE...

High pressure is building in from the west as low pressure departs
the region to the southeast today. There is still a tight enough
gradient with cold air over the lakes to lead to unstable conditions
and elevated winds and waves today. Though largely less than 25
knots, the persistent northeasterly winds will lead to Waves around
4 feet in a portion of the Lake Huron nearshore waters resulting in
a Small Craft Advisory today from 10 am to 10 pm. Surface high
pressure will then slide through the Great Lake region this
afternoon and Saturday, promoting generally light winds and low
waves. The high will begin to push off to the east Sunday with rain
chances returning late in the day or overnight.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DRK


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