Haverhill, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

984
FXUS61 KBOX 150613
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
213 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure will bring scattered showers or thunderstorms
at times through the end of the week as it reaches New England, but
a majority of the time will be dry. A cold front will bring a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, then cooler and drier
air will follow early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Updated 130 PM

Key Message:

* Scattered showers or a stray thunderstorm.

Band of showers that has been focused to our west has had a
tough time making it into SNE thanks to strong and persistent
ridging aloft. Drier air in place has certainly been winning the
battle and even locations near CT River that had a few showers
earlier have dried out. Of note is a band of thunderstorms north
of PHL that seems to have formed on nose of 850 jet collocated
with northern edge of MUCAPE axis.

All of this activity will finally shift into SNE tonight as
ridge shifts farther east but will fall apart (into more
scattered showers) as it outruns better lift and instability as
short wave dampens out. Still can`t rule out a stray storm
overnight, especially near South Coast where what`s left of
MUCAPE passes offshore.

Persistent E/SE flow combined with increasing lower level
moisture will bring plenty of low clouds and patchy fog
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Updated 130 PM Wed:

Key Message:

 * More humid with a passing shower/storm Thu and Fri.

Slow moving surface low lingers near us Thu into Fri. Not much
in way of upper dynamics nearby to generate much more than
widely scattered diurnal showers or thunderstorms both days,
more of the "garden variety" type given lack of instability,
deep layer shear, or mid level lapse rates. Interesting to note
that a majority of the high-res guidance, including RRFS, hints
that locations in western/central MA are more favored, where we
have most instability and some enhanced lift from terrain.

Also of note is potential for MCS development Thu night into
Fri from Great Lakes into Northeast, again as shown by RRFS, but
as is often the case, any such system should pass to our SW
where instability is greater. Certainly something to keep an eye
on though.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Updated 130 PM Wed

Key Messages:

 * Potential for severe thunderstorms Saturday.
 * Turning drier and cooler early next week.

Seeing fairly good agreement among models that warm front will lift
through SNE Sat morning placing us in warm sector for much of day
before cold front approaches late. It`s a bit too early to focus in
on details but overall pattern suggests cold front reaches us too
late which may limit severe weather potential. This has look of a
typical low CAPE higher shear environment with weak mid level lapse
rates, and whenever we see a closed low nearby that tends to
heighten our awareness since they have been shown through CSTAR
research to be associated with severe weather, although in this case
upper flow is more W/SW than S which will limit deep moisture from
being advected in. That said, ML Severe Weather Probs from both NSSL
and Colorado State show rather high probabilities in SNE Saturday so
the threat still exists. Localized wind damage would be main threat
from thunderstorms but given large number of outdoor events,
everyone should be aware of potential for lightning Saturday and
have a safety plan ready.

Beyond that, our blocky pattern persists as upper low meanders
around Maritimes and keeps region in cyclonic flow as ridging builds
over Great Lakes. This means a drier and somewhat cooler pattern for
early next week, but colder air aloft should bring diurnal clouds
and perhaps even a brief shower Mon/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Thursday: Moderate confidence.

Initially...areas MVFR-IFR cigs in 3-6 SM SHRA mainly in
interior SNE airports, with VFR still holding on for most of
the eastern airports. Expect SHRA axis to gradually shift E
through the rest of the overnight to early Thurs, with
categories deteriorating to MVFR-IFR levels for eastern
airports. By daybreak, most TAFs should be in the MVFR-IFR range
in stratus, mist with SHRA mainly confined to areas along/ east
of ORH. Light SE to S winds.

Today: Moderate confidence.

Should see widespread MVFR-IFR cigs early with early-day SHRA
moving offshore. It looks like moisture gets trapped and
struggles to mix out east of ORH, and maintained at least MVFR
bases for most of the day. Wouldn`t rule out a SHRA at times but
majority of the time will be dry. For ORH, BAF and BDL, there`s
more optimism in bases lifting to VFR, but that will increase
the risk for SCT slow-moving SHRA/possible TS indicated in TAFs
with PROB30s from 17-23z. Although severe weather not expected,
lightning and downpours could affect these western terminals if
a direct hit occurs. Continued SE to S winds around 5-10 kt.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Areas of IFR to LIFR fog and stratus develops after daytime
SHRA/TS eases after sundown. Showed most airports around 1/2 to
5SM, but fog could become locally dense and visbys could be as
low as 1/4SM, especially western airports. Light to calm winds.

Friday: High confidence in trends, but moderate on timing.

IFR-LIFR from overnight should start to improve to VFR 13-16z,
perhaps longer across the Cape/Islands. Some risk for SHRA/TS
possible west of ORH after 18z but stronger activity seems more
likely west of the Berkshires. Light S winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. VFR for another couple hrs until
SHRA moves in around 08-09z with ceilings then trending to
MVFR/IFR. SHRA ends around 12z although MVFR ceilings likely
continue into early afternoon. Categories could trend MVFR-VFR
range during the afternoon, then start to lower again to IFR-
LIFR levels late-afternoon to tonight.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR with 3-6 SM SHRA. SHRA ends
around 11z although MVFR-IFR bases continue into the early
afternoon. Scattering to VFR around early-midaftn, but
potential for slow-moving TS 17-23z. IFR-LIFR in fog/stratus
tonight, locally dense fog possible.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, isolated
TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Updated 130 PM Wed:

E/SE winds remain below SCA tonight and Thu but expect building
seas to 3-6 ft on open south coastal waters where we have SCAs
posted. Few showers or a thunderstorm possible later tonight
with areas of fog, which should slowly lift Thu and develop
once again Thu night into Fri.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin