Randallstown, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS61 KLWX 310751
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
351 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will depart to our northeast today, pushing one
final cold front through the region. High pressure will build
into the area tonight, and remain in control over the area
through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure
may bring a front through the region towards the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With all of the severe weather that impacted the region last
evening, we are entering a relative lull for the time being.
There are still some showers east of the Blue Ridge on the back
side of a departing low pressure system. This is accompanied by
a very impressive 50-60 kt wind field at 850 mb or so. In some
of the heavier shower, we are seeing some stronger winds making
it down towards the surface. Some measure gusts in the 40 to 50
mph range have been observed occasionally, but for the most
part, the stable layer is doing its job and only allowing for
around 30-40 mph gusts for the most part. Wind Advisories remain
in effect for areas east of the Blue Ridge for now, while the
Advisory west of the Blue Ridge was allowed to expire. As
expected, this was a pretty short duration event for any one
given location, so expect these to push out of here over the
next few hours as the low moves further to our northeast.

Now, as we move into the day today, we aren`t completely out of
the woods yet when it comes to dealing with this system. The
surface low, while departing to the northeast, continues to
strengthen. This will enhance to wind field over the region for
much of the day today. Overall, not seeing Wind Advisory level
winds, but could see a lengthy period of 25 to 35 mph wind gusts
during the afternoon as the upper trough begins to swing
through.

This aforementioned upper trough will spark a few showers and
storms yet again today, albeit lower in coverage than we saw
last evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may begin to
form as early as the late morning to early afternoon hours, and
will track through the area from northwest to southeast
throughout the remainder of the afternoon. An interesting note
about today when compared to yesterday`s event is that storms
may be more efficient in bringing down damaging wind gusts
today. This is due to more substantial low-level lapse rates,
and a decent amount of forecast DCAPE. SPC currently has much
of the forecast area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms for this risk, along with a small risk for large
hail as well.

Storms will progress off to our south and east during the
evening hours. The later portions of the afternoon into the
evening may actually turn out dry for many areas west of I-95.
Dry conditions will then develop for all as we head into tonight.

Temperatures will reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon, before dropping back into the 40s and lower 50s
Saturday night. Some mid-upper 30s may even be possible in
sheltered mountain valleys in some of our highest elevation
areas out along the Alleghenies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will remain in place across much of the Eastern
US on Sunday, but by then the trough axis will be located just
off to our east. This will allow us to remain dry and mostly
sunny throughout the afternoon, and with seasonably cool temps
in the 70s (60s in the mountains).

By Monday, high pressure continues to build towards the region,
and upper troughing holds firm over the region. The trough will
support continued below normal temperatures and diurnal cloud
development, but the forecast looks dry at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong upper ridge starts to build in finally by Tuesday
through at least Thursday. This happens as high pressure pushes
off the eastern seaboard. This will act to pump warm and humid
air back into the region, finally setting up a summer-like
pattern, just in time for the start of meteorological summer.
Above normal temperatures make a return to the forecast, with
highs in the mid 80s Tuesday, then the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday through Friday. Humidity levels will also likely
become increasingly uncomfortable towards the end of next week,
as dew points on Thursday and Friday are expected to approach
the upper 60s to near 70.

Troughing to the northwest will slowly break down the ridge
by the end of next week. It`s still uncertain how quickly the
forcing moves into the area, but shower and thunderstorm chances
will gradually increase Thursday and Friday, with a frontal
passage likely either late in the week or early next weekend.
Will be monitoring this potential for thunderstorm activity as
the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Gusty winds and some showers this morning are the primary threat
to the terminals. Latest updates as of around 07z try to
pinpoint the departure of these showers and the associated
winds over the next couple of hours. Winds remain a bit elevated
after that, still gusting 15 to 20 knots through the rest of
the overnight into mid-morning.

Conditions will improve back to VFR by mid-morning or so for
most, if not all, terminals,

Additional showers and thunderstorms move through later this
afternoon into the early evening hours. The coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms both look to be lower in magnitude
than what we saw yesterday. However, there is actually a
slightly higher potential for stronger wind gusts in afternoon
storms today. So if airports are impacted this afternoon, which
is not a certainty given less coverage, gusty winds and heavy
rain could briefly cause some issues.

Any storms should depart off to the east by the late afternoon
to early evening hours. Winds will be gusty out of the west
today.

VFR conditions and westerly winds are expected on Sunday through
Thursday as high pressure builds across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure, which is quickly departing to our
northeast, is bringing at least occasional Gale-Force gusts to
the waters this morning as it continues to strengthen. These
Gale gusts may linger a few hours into mid-morning, but should
taper off to mid to high tier SCA gusts by mid-morning. Gale
Warnings are in effect for all waters tonight through 8 AM.

SCA conditions will continue within westerly flow tomorrow. SMWs
may be needed as additional showers and thunderstorms move over
the waters tomorrow afternoon. Low-end SCA gusts may linger in
westerly flow into Sunday, but confidence is a bit lower at this
time.

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Monday through Wednesday as
high pressure builds across the area. Northwest winds on Monday
will eventually become southerly by Wednesday. Heading into
Wednesday night through the end of the week, we enter a period
very favorable for strong southerly channeling up the Chesapeake
Bay, especially during the evening and overnight hours as the
air temperatures cool back down closer to water temperatures.
Watch for SCAs during this timeframe as we get closer in time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
While anomalies remain somewhat elevated this morning, the wind
shift is occurring at this time. Would expect anomalies to drop
pretty rapidly with Gale-Force northerly to northwesterly winds.
This should bump all sites out of action stage within the next
high tide cycle or two. No tidal flooding is anticipated across
the area over the next several days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ004>006-
     008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for MDZ008.
VA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ038>040-
     051-053-054-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530>543.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...CJL
MARINE...CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL