Milford Mill, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

411
FXUS61 KLWX 211809
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
209 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of low pressure will move across the region
through Thursday, then move offshore at the end of the week. A
weak area of high pressure will approach the region by the
weekend. Another frontal system across the southern U.S. may
impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An initial shortwave has moved offshore of the Mid-Atlantic as
of mid afternoon. Most of the deeper forcing has departed, and
therefore the steadier rain has ended for now. However, moist
easterly flow maintains areas of drizzle.

Clearing to the west of the Appalachians is allowing for some
modest surface heating beneath cooling mid-level temps as the
parent upper trough approaches. This is expected to result in a
band of showers and thunderstorms moving over the Appalachians
this evening, before weakening as it moves east. Despite the
weakening, some elevated instability may maintain downpours and
isolated lightning strikes further east into the night.

Temperatures will likely hold steady or even slowly rise for
part of the night as a warm/wedge front slowly lifts north.
Patchy fog may develop given the moist low levels in areas where
winds and precip become a bit lighter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main upper trough/low will close off and pivot overhead
Thursday into Friday. At the surface, low pressure will develop
off SE VA and move up the coast. A dry slot aloft in the wake
of another wave should bring about another lull and possibly
some clearing for a time on Thursday. Wherever the warm/wedge
front sets up, a zone of differential heating beneath heights
falling aloft should result in a few showers and thunderstorms.
Shear and CAPE both look a bit marginal for anything severe, but
a stronger storm or two can`t be ruled out especially if a
little more heating takes place.

A few additional showers may pop up during the day Friday as the
upper low swings by, but most of the forcing and deeper moisture
by this point should be moving off to our north and east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build to our north Saturday through Sunday.
Dry conditions and temperatures about 3 to 5 degrees below average
may occur both days.

A warm front will work its way slowly from southwest to northeast
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Sunday through late
Monday. There is a chance for a little rain across the Virginia
Piedmont late Monday. Rain chances will increase and could become
likely Monday night as the warm front gets closer and slides east.

There is still a spread in model differences with the rainfall
coverage, timing and amounts. Some models have rain showers
lingering and becoming more numerous through the day Tuesday as a
low pressure system slides in behind the advancing warm front. Other
models have the showers exiting with reinforcing high pressure to
the north on Tuesday.

There is a chance for some rain showers on Wednesday, as well. This
depends on the advancement of the low. Temperatures will be near
average on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A lot of guidance remains insistent that IFR CIGs will develop
shortly. These lower CIGs (below FL010) have been a bit more
patchy and intermittent thus far as of early afternoon, likely
due to a steady east wind in the low levels. As moisture further
increases, it should overcome that wind resulting in lowering
cloud bases (especially as winds become lighter this evening).
Drizzle is a possibility as well as times this afternoon due to
the shallow moisture on easterly flow. Some fog is possible
tonight, as are waves of showers and perhaps an elevated/iso
thunderstorm. Additional TS are possible particularly near the
DC metro terminals Thursday afternoon. Winds will shift around
to the south and west as low pressure near Lake Erie redevelops
off the SE VA coast on Thursday. The low will move up the coast
leading to diminishing coverage of showers (though chances will
linger), and winds turning to the W/NW late Thursday-Friday.

VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Winds northwest
10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots Saturday, diminishing at
night. Winds northwest 5 to 15 knots Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty easterly flow will continue through this evening, before
the pressure gradient relaxes with a trough of low pressure
moving overhead. Low pressure will redevelop off the SE VA shore
and move up the coast Thursday into Friday. NW winds will
increase as the low moves up the coast, likely leading to
periods of SCAs through the end of the week. Waves of rain are
expected this evening, and again Thursday afternoon and evening
when a few thunderstorms are possible.

Small craft advisories are possible Saturday. No marine hazards
Saturday night through Sunday. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots
gusts up to 20 knots Saturday, diminishing at night. Winds
northwest 5 to 15 knots Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of strong high pressure to the north over
Ontario with low pressure passing through to the south will
keep winds easterly through Thu morning. There will be
an increasing threat for Minor tidal flooding. Water levels
eventually drop off on Thu as winds shift to northwesterly.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ011-014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ016-018.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ501-502-509-510.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ057.
     Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight
     for VAZ038>040-507.
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ501-503-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB
LONG TERM...KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF
MARINE...KLW/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX