Essex, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS61 KLWX 160051
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
851 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary keeps clouds and daily shower,
thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the start of the week.
A warm front lifts back through the area Tuesday into Wednesday,
with a strong cold front to follow late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Evening update... Moderate rain ongoing in vicinity of mesolow
across northern VA. Modest rain rates over a prolonged period
could result in some localized flooding issues across NOVA and
the DC metro. Have issued an SPS for the Alleghenies. Traffic
cameras across the Alleghenies continue to show areas of
significant reductions in visibility, especially on the eastern
slops. Will monitor the need for any Dense Fog Advisories
overnight. Previous discussion follows...

The stalled frontal boundary over the Alleghenies has not moved
since late morning, with noted numerous showers/thunderstorms just
to our west in WV and southwest PA. To our south, a warm front is
lifting north across central VA. As of 3PM, it has reached the
James River, and will continue to progress north this afternoon. The
progress of the warm front likely halts somewhere between I-64 and I-
66 as the CAD wedge is reinforced by stratiform rain moving in from
the Shenandoah Valley.

It has been a cool summer afternoon thus far as most of the area is
seeing temps in the 60s. Low to mid 70s in the central Shenandoah
Valley and central VA where the sun has proven its existence today.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the
Alleghenies and parts of central VA. The ongoing showers and
thunderstorms are very slow moving, and with efficient warm-cloud
processes it won`t take much for heavy rain to fall in a short
period of time. These showers and a few thunderstorms make their way
east of the Blue Ridge into northern VA/MD this evening into
tonight. By that point the heavy rain threat will have mostly ended,
though cannot rule out a heavy storm producing some localized
flooding in the urban I-95 corridor.

A brief lull in precip is possible, then a light, steady drizzle
builds in as another strong inversion sets up tonight. Mist and
patchy fog are likely as temps settle in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Will likely need a Flood Watch for western zones near Allegheny
Front at some point for tomorrow. Previous discussion follows...

High pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England continues to
keep a stalled frontal boundary over our area. The CAD wedge again
persists over the area most of the day, keeping conditions cooler
and cloudy. The morning drizzle and scattered light showers will
dissipate late morning to early afternoon. Another round of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms is likely along the stalled
front, with the main activity focusing west of the Blue Ridge.
Highs Monday are forecast in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s.

The stalled surface boundary finally starts to lift north of the
area as a warm front Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to form during the afternoon hours, within a very humid
airmass (surface dewpoints around 70). High temperatures on Tuesday
are expected to be reach into the upper 70s and mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure strengthens offshore moving into the middle of the
week, leading to south to southwesterly low-level flow and
increasing heat and humidity locally. Temperatures should reach into
the 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday. When combined with dewpoints
in the lower 70s, heat indices may approach 100 on Thursday.
Thunderstorms appear possible both days, but the greater coverage
should be on Thursday as an upper trough tracks off to our north
across the Great Lakes, with its associated cold front approaching
from the west. Current model guidance suggests that ample
instability and shear may be present on Thursday, so some storms may
be on the stronger side. Upper troughing is expected to dig in from
the Great Lakes on Friday. Cooler and drier conditions are expected
locally in the wake of the system`s cold front heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low clouds and mainly IFR conditions persist across the area through
Tuesday morning. CIGs generally around 500-1000 feet, with
possibility of sub-500ft CIGs during the early morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening,
though the highest chances are going to be at CHO today and Monday.
More widespread convection is possible on Tuesday. A warm front
lifts through the area on Tuesday, finally scouring out the low
clouds.

Sub-VFR conditions may be possible Tuesday morning, but improvement
back to prevailing VFR conditions is expected Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be
possible in thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A stalled front over the region will bring period of showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday. Easterly winds around 10 knots, and
likely remain sub-SCA through the start of the week. Occasional
gusts to around 20 knots are possible at times. Some marine fog is
possible tonight given the moist airmass in place. Less shower and
thunderstorm activity is also expected today through Monday given
the proximity of the boundary south of the region.

Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters on both
Tuesday and Wednesday.SCA conditions look to return Thursday
into Friday as a strong cold front crosses the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ501-502-509-
     510.
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025-026-036-
     037-503-504-508.
WV...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ055-501>506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR/EST
NEAR TERM...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...CPB/KRR/EST
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/CPB/KRR