Ellicott City, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

791
FXUS61 KLWX 111406
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1006 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring periods of rain and
below normal temperatures through Saturday. High pressure builds
into the area, bringing warmer and dry conditions Sunday into
Monday. The next cold front reaches the area early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KLWX radar loop as of 10AM shows precipitation moving northward
along the I-95 corridor. The KIAD 12Z sounding shows plenty of
moisture at the lower levels (96% RH), leading to low clouds
across the area. No changes were made to the previous forecast
with the previous forecast discussion located below.

Early morning showers along the Eastern Shore continue to track
north, though most of the area should remain dry through sunrise.
Temperatures in the 40s, with some patchy fog west of the Blue Ridge.

A large mid/upper-level trough digging over the Southeast states
eventually becomes neutral tilt right along the Eastern Seaboard by
late tonight. Early morning surface obs indicate an open wave of low
pressure stretching from WV to eastern KY/TN. As this feature
becomes better organized, it closes off into a surface low that
tracks across southern VA/NC through the day, then moves offshore of
VA tonight. This places our area on the northern side of the surface
low, and within a broad frontal zone that develops due to the
interaction of the developing surface low and high pressure over
ME/NS.

The latest CAMs and most other guidance are in good agreement that
coverage of showers increases quickly over central/southeast VA
after sunrise, then push north into the rest of the local area as
upper forcing is maximized through the afternoon and early evening.
Rainfall amounts of 1-2" are forecast east of the Blue Ridge, and
between 0.25-0.75" to the west. There is the potential for some
isolated higher amounts of 2-3" in Southern MD toward the Baltimore
metro, though that will depend on if a heavy rain band sets up.
Still, most of the rain is expected to be beneficial given the
ongoing drought. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low
to mid 50s.

As the surface low pulls away, showers decrease in coverage from
southwest to northeast through the night. The rain is expected to
persist the longest in northeast MD. For the Alleghenies, some snow
could mix in at/above 3000 feet, though any accumulation will be a
dusting at best. Not much movement in temperatures tonight as lows
settle in the mid to upper 40s, with low to mid 30s in the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough goes neutral tilt Saturday, then very slowly moves
completely offshore by Sunday afternoon. As a result, the surface
low also tracks offshore very slowly, keeping showers in the
forecast for most of Saturday in the Alleghenies and along/north of
I-66. Showers come to an end from west to east Saturday evening into
Saturday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds over the area
Sunday, with seasonal and dry conditions.

Below normal temperatures continue Saturday as highs only reach the
upper 40s to low 50s. Lows drop to the 30s to low 40s Saturday
night. Warmer for Sunday as highs reach the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An overall active upper-level pattern will continue into next week,
however, much of the week looks to remain mostly dry across the
region until towards the end of the week.

The upper low that has been lingering for days finally pushes east
of the region on Sunday, giving way to a building upper-level ridge.
This upper ridge will then move overhead on Monday. Overall this
will lead to a warming trend along with dry conditions. Highs on
Sunday jump into the 60s (50s in the mountains), before soaring into
the 70s on Monday (60s in the mountains).

By Monday evening into Monday night, a potent low moving through the
Great Lakes will drag a cold front towards the region, before
pushing through on Tuesday. With weakening/glancing forcing and
westerly flow, there will likely be a tendency for showers and
isolated thunderstorms to fall apart as they cross the mountains, so
not carrying very high POPs in the forecast at this time east of the
Allgheny Front.

A couple secondary fronts may cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Precipitation with these boundaries will likely be limited to
upslope areas of the Allegheny Front. This precipitation could
change over to snow as temperatures fall. Temperatures will likely
return closer to normal Tuesday, then fall below normal Wednesday.
Wednesday night looks like the coldest of the stretch, when some
areas could fall below freezing. Winds will also become gusty
Tuesday through Wednesday due to the pressure gradient tightening as
the surface low moves along the St. Lawrence Valley.

The end of next week is where things start to become a bit more
interesting, but also very uncertain at this time. It appears that a
stronger trough with more potent upper-level energy and better
moisture flow will impact the Mid-Atlantic region. Timing of that
feature is still a bit up in the air. At any rate, carrying slight
chance to low-end chance POPs Thursday evening into Thursday night.
This will carry into Friday as well. It is just not yet determined
what the exact timing will be, and by extension, what level of
impact we could see. For now, it is something to watch at the very
least.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions continues through tonight
as an upper trough and surface low pressure slowly move across the
region. IFR ceilings are likely through tonight, with some periods
of LIFR conditions possible. As steady showers move into the area,
expect visibility reductions to be in place for most of the day.
Northeast winds will gust to around 20 knots at times this evening
through Saturday afternoon.

Showers decrease in coverage tonight into Saturday morning, though
low clouds are expected to linger through Saturday afternoon. As the
surface low pulls away from the area, VFR conditions return Saturday
evening into Saturday night, and continue through all of Sunday.

VFR conditions likely prevail on Monday and Tuesday, though there is
a low chance of rain showers Monday night with a frontal passage.
Light southerly winds are expected on Monday beneath an upper-level
ridge. West winds increase behind a cold front early Tuesday,
potentially gusting to around 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to develop by early
afternoon, and continue through most of the weekend. This is due to
a slow moving area of low pressure that is moving across the region
through the weekend. East winds this morning turn northeast tonight.
The strongest winds are most likely this evening into tonight when
frequent gusts of 20-30 knots overspread the waters, especially over
the Chesapeake Bay.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the waters through
Saturday evening, and it will likely be extended through Sunday
afternoon. Winds finally diminish below SCA levels around sunset
Sunday evening.

Lighter winds are expected on Monday as high pressure builds into
the area, with direction becoming southerly. No marine hazards are
expected during this time.

A cold front will push through Monday night, with strong westerly
winds developing in its wake. SCAs are likely, and gusts could
approach gale force into Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...AVS/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR