Orono, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS61 KCAR 170531
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
131 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High
pressure will build across the region Thursday into Friday. Low
pressure will approach from the west Friday night and track
north of the area Saturday. A cold front will cross the region
Sunday. High pressure builds in on Monday. Low pressure
approaches from the west on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM Update: Showers continue to drop off in intensity and in
number across the north tonight, while the Downeast region
remains dry. Temperatures also continue to drop, and rain
showers in the north are beginning to transition to snow
showers. Winds have begun to drop off with the development of a
weak nocturnal inversion, but gusts could quickly return in the
morning. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor
adjustments made in this update based on current observations
and trends.

Previous Discussion:
Upper level low pressure slowly lifts across Labrador tonight
through Thursday. A series of disturbances rotating around the
low will cross the forecast area tonight through Thursday.
Expect numerous/scattered rain and snow showers early tonight
across northern and central portions of the forecast area, with
isolated/scattered rain showers Downeast. Little, if any, snow
accumulation is expected. Showers then decrease regionwide
overnight with mostly cloudy skies north, partly cloudy
Downeast. Another upper disturbance will rotate across the
region Thursday. Isolated rain/snow showers could linger across
the north and mountains into Thursday. Otherwise, expect partly
sunny skies north with mostly/partly sunny skies Downeast.
West/northwest winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph Thursday. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 30 to the mid 30s
north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. High temperatures
Thursday will range from around 40 to the mid 40s north, to the
upper 40s to around 50 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging continues to move into New England Thursday night due to
a high pressure system to our south in the Atlantic. Low
pressure system to our north moves northeast to Labrador,
relaxing the pressure gradient between the two systems. May be a
few lingering clouds in the far north by evening time with wrap
around moisture from the low pressure system, but with dry air
moving in with the ridging, expect skies to clear out overnight.
Alongside with weakening winds, temperatures forecast to drop
relatively fast into the 20s throughout the area.

Ridging remains over Maine during the day on Friday, with
partially cloudy skies. Expect highs in the mid-50s, and a low
pressure system to our northwest in Canada advects in some
warmer air ahead of it. Winds may get gusty at times due to a
pressure gradient forming between the high and low pressure
systems. By Saturday evening, low pressure system brings in the
next chance for precipitation from west to east until late
Saturday night. Skies stay cloudy, and with an approaching warm
front to our southwest with another low pressure system,
temperatures may drop a little, but should stay in the low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain forecast to continue into Saturday evening. Plenty of warm
air gets advected into Maine with this pressure system, causing
high temperatures to get up into the high 50s low 60s throughout
the area. With this frontal boundary passage, there is a slight
chance for some thunder rumbles to occur Saturday afternoon.
There is a good shear environment, alongside some favorable lift
and instability parameters, but with cloudy skies and jet
position looking to stay to our northwest, did not include
thunderstorms at this time. Some aspects supporting
thunderstorms exist, but they dont look to line up correctly at
this time.

Skinny ridge moves through New England on Monday, between the
departing low pressure system to our east, and a new low
pressure from the mid-west. The models continue to struggle to
figure out where this low is going to move. EURO has the system
staying in Canada and producing a separate low system off of
this parent low, resulting in more rain occurring Monday night
into Tuesday. The GFS, however, shows this mid-west low system
will Fujiwara with another low pressure system along the Maine
coast, resulting in the mid-west low merging with this coastal
low. This solution has more rain along the waters and immediate
coastline, with the rest of northern Maine seeing rain showers.
The bottom line up front: rain is forecast Monday into Tuesday,
but there is little confidence in where the rain with be
heavier. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates. Highs
climbs into the 50s this weekend and early next week. Lows
generally in the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mostly VFR conditions continue into the overnight
hours, especially for Downeast terminals. Northern terminals are
more likely to be in and out of MVFR to potentially briefly IFR
cigs as lingering SHSN and SHRA continue to push through. All
terminals will trend to all VFR into early Thursday morning. W
winds around 10 kts tonight, becoming 15 to 20 kts with gusts
25 to 30 kts on Thursday. Brief LLWS possible beginning Thursday
evening as surface gusts begin to taper out.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night - Friday...VFR conditions across all terminals.
W/NW winds 5 to 10 kts, with gusts 15-20 kts possible. Winds
shift to the S by Friday evening.

Friday Night  Saturday night...MVFR/VFR conditions as rain
begins at all terminals. Winds from the S at 5-10 kt, shifting
to the W by Saturday night. Gusts up to 15-20 kt possible.
Potential for LLWS.

Sunday  Sunday night...VFR conditions across all terminals.
Winds from the W at 5-10 kts, and then from the NW at 10-15 by
Sunday morning. Gusts 25-30 kts possible Sunday.

Monday...VFR. NW/N winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the
waters tonight into Thursday morning. Winds/seas then below
small craft advisory levels Thursday afternoon. Isolated rain
showers possible this evening.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts and seas forecast to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria Thursday night into Friday night. Potential
for Small Craft level winds and seas again later Friday night
into Sunday evening. Rain showers forecast for Friday evening
into Sunday evening. Another round of rain showers forecast on
Monday night into Wednesday morning. Winds from the NW, and
shift to the SW by Friday evening.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Brennan
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Brennan