Old Town, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

593
FXUS61 KCAR 111359
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
959 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain ridged across the region today. Low
pressure will slowly lift north toward the region Saturday
through Sunday, then exit across the Maritimes Monday. Another
low pressure system approaches Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM Update...
Adjusted the forecast based on the current conditions. Expanded
the area of snow showers this morning slightly farther north
given snow is currently falling in central Piscataquis. Snow
will likely not fall much farther north due to dry air at low-
levels. Also increased the coverage of rain showers closer to
the coast based on greater confidence for sufficient forcing and
saturation of the profile.


Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain ridged from the Maritimes,
across the forecast area, to Quebec province today. At the same
time, a trof will extend across the eastern Great Lakes to New
England. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will move east across
the forecast area. Expect isolated/scattered rain and snow
showers across mostly western and Downeast portions of the
forecast area this morning. Isolated/scattered rain showers are
then possible across the entire forecast area this afternoon.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies today. Ridging will begin
to slowly lift northeast tonight while low pressure organizes
along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Expect mostly cloudy skies across
the forecast area tonight. High temperatures today will range
from the mid to upper 40s north, with mid 40s Downeast. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 20s to around 30
north, to around 30 to the lower 30s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level and surface low pressure will cross the mid-atlantic
region on Saturday. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will tend to
persist across far northern Maine. Uncertainty still exists on
just how far northward any moisture makes it into the region
during Saturday. The 0Z operational GFS, and the 0Z EC are most
aggressive in bringing showers northward, whereas NAM/CMC
solutions keep things drier with more persistent ridging. Have
kept precipitation chances on Saturday capped at chance for most
of the area. But it would appear that far northern Aroostook
will remain dry through much of the daylight hours. The forecast
uncertainty increases Saturday night and Sunday as the upper
level and surface lows move east of Cape Cod. The overall
consensus GFS/NAM/EC, and to a lesser extent, the CMC, is to
bring measurable precipitation into Downeast/eastern areas
during Sunday. Although NBM was showing categorical pops there,
was not quite ready to buy off on it quite yet, so capped them
at likley. Also went a few degrees cooler than NBM for Sunday
with northeast flow expected. The precipitation type is
potentially problematic too, with GFS still trying to show some
accumulating snow for portions of the area. Thus, this will need
to be monitored closely. For now, kept primarily rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any precipitation gradually winds down by late Sunday night. Brief
ridging returns for Monday with dry weather. Another upper low moves
eastward from the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday and crosses the
region through mid week. This will keep unsettled weather across the
region Monday night through Wednesday. At this time kept
precipitation on type rain but some wet snow is possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday. With the majority of the model solutions
indicating measurable precipitation on Tuesday, kept likley to
categorical pops across the region. Drier weather should return
by Thursday. High temperatures on Monday will be above normal,
than near to a bit below normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR across the region today, with local
MVFR also possible. Isolated/scattered rain and snow showers
this morning, then isolated/scattered rain showers this
afternoon. VFR/MVFR tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
south/southeast today. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight.

SHORT TERM: Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Light E to NE wind.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR -SHRASN. NE winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday...Mainly IFR with -RA. N to NE winds 5 to 15 kt.

Sunday night...IFR early with -RASN, trending to MVFR/IFR late. N
winds 5 to 10 kt.

Monday...MVFR/IFR possible early with -SHRASN. Then VFR. N winds 5
to 10kts.

Monday Night...VFR. Winds light and variable.

Tuesday...VFR early, then MVFR or lower in -shra. S winds 5 to 15
kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Isolated/scattered rain and snow showers
through early afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Have issued an SCA beginning Saturday afternoon
through Sunday evening for the outer waters for seas up to 6 ft
and gusts up to 25 kt.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Melanson/Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Melanson/Norcross/TWD
Marine...Melanson/Norcross/TWD