Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

854
FXUS61 KCAR 040521
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1221 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will rapidly approach from the northwest on
Wednesday and cross the area Thursday. Low pressure then deepens
over the Maritimes on Friday while ridging builds over the
forecast area on Saturday. A weak low pressure system approaches
the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1220AM Update: Added snow flurries back into the forecast due to
continuous flurries at the office and further south. Also
adjusted the sky forecast due to the latest images. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast looks good.

Previous discussion...
Weather tonight is a repeat of last night/s with flurries and
isolated snow showers across the north. Temps will be very similar
once again as any clearing will drop quickly before clouds
redevelop. Essentially looking at lower teens and single digits acrs
the north with mid-teens again over Downeast.

Tomorrow will start off mostly-partly sunny over all areas in the
morning before clouding up again late in the afternoon. By the very
end of the near term, approaching winter storm will be located just
to the north of Lake Huron in southern Ontario. Clouds increase
after 21z across the far west with srly winds increasing as well
as pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main story for the short-term period will be an Alberta
Clipper impacting the area Wednesday night through Thursday
night. The main low will track into southwestern Quebec, before
a triple-point low forms near Penobscot Bay by Thursday morning.
This triple-point low will track northeastwards towards Eastern
Aroostook County and then into western New Brunswick.

Precipitation with this system will arrive into western areas by
late Wednesday evening, and overspread the entire area after
midnight Wednesday night. Initially, enough cold air will be in
place for precipitation to start as snow away from the coast.
Along the coast, a rain/snow mix is expected at the onset. South
to southeasterly winds with this system will quickly bring in
enough warm air to change the coast over to all rain late
Wednesday night. Towards Bangor and over Interior Downeast,
light snow accumulations are expected before precipitation mixes
with and changes to rain Thursday morning. Strong, gusty winds
are also expected at the Downeast coast Thursday as the triple-
point low strengthens. To the north and west of Bangor and
Interior Downeast, the warm air advection will be fighting
evaporational cooling. Thus, while precipitation is expected to
at least mix with rain for a time up to a line from about Dover-
Foxcroft to perhaps Presque Isle, there is still uncertainty as
to how much mixing there will be. Further north and west,
p-type should remain all snow, aided by cooling from upslope
flow. Colder air will filter in behind the system Thursday
evening. This will likely allow leftover rain showers to mix
with or change to snow showers for Bangor and Downeast. Further
north, snow is expected to continue into Thursday night, and
completely clear the area early Friday morning.

Based on the forecast, decided to keep the Winter Storm Watch as
is. Not enough confidence to upgrade any part of the watch to a
warning at this time. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
Northern Somerset County. Confidence is high there in advisory
snowfall amounts, and warning amounts appear unlikely there.
Will likely need advisories to the south of the current watch
area, but not enough confidence to issue at this time. High
temperatures Thursday will be near freezing from the Central
Highlands northward, and above freezing to the south and east.
Coastal areas will likely rise into the lower 40s.

As the system departs into the Canadian Maritimes for Thursday
night and Friday, it will rapidly deepen. This will create an
intense pressure gradient over the region, resulting in strong
westerly winds. Thus, the potential exists for blowing snow in
places that receive significant snowfall from the system. The
best odds of blowing snow will be in places where p-type remains
all snow. Places that mix with rain will likely have snow that
is too wet to loft. Regardless, colder temperatures are forecast
for Thursday night and Friday. Lows Thursday night will range
from the upper teens in the North Woods, to the upper 20s at
the coast. High temperatures Friday will not rise much, ranging
from the lower 20s to lower 30s from northwest to southeast.
Wind chills are expected to drop into the single digits above
zero by late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds will gradually diminish Friday night through Saturday
night as the aforementioned low pulls further away and high
pressure builds in. This pattern will bring in the coldest air
so far this season to Northern and Eastern Maine. Will have to
monitor Friday night and Saturday night for the potential for
significant radiational cooling. 12Z model guidance then shows a
weak clipper system perhaps bringing some light snow on Sunday.
Another system could impact the region early next week, but
details are uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions across Downeast terminals next 24
hours. Aroostook terminals likely to see MVFR cigs into this
evening but expected to become VFR after 23z.

SHORT TERM:
Wed night...Conditions rapidly dropping to IFR/LIFR from
southwest to northeast as snow moves in., changing to rain at
coastal terminals. SE winds 5 to 10 kts. Coastal terminals
increasing SE winds to 10-20 kts, gusting 25-30 kts late.
Southerly LLWS likely.

Thurs...IFR/LIFR in snow, with rain at coastal terminals. Snow
may change to rain south and east of a line roughly from BGR to
potentially as far north as HUL, though low cigs will continue.
Winds shifting SW through the day 5 to 10 kts with gusts
increasing to 20 kts late.

Thurs night...Downeast terminals improving to VFR after early rain/snow
showers end, while northern terminals remain MVFR/IFR with snow.
Increasing W winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 35 kts.

Fri...Improving towards VFR across all terminals. W winds 10 to
20 kts gusting 25 to 35 kts, with LLWS possible.

Fri night  Sat Night...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to
10 kts.

Sun...Deteriorating to IFR or lower with light snow. S-SW winds
5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
S-SE winds will quickly increase to Gale force on all waters
Wednesday evening as a low pressure system approaches Penobscot
Bay. Wave heights build to 4 to 7 feet on the outer waters
Wednesday night, and then to 7 to 9 feet Thursday morning. Seas
build to 3 to 5 feet on the intra-coastal waters by Thursday
morning. Winds briefly subside to Small Craft Advisory levels
Thursday afternoon as winds change direction to W-NW. Winds
increase again to Gale Force levels Thursday evening as a low
pressure system rapidly strengthens northeast of the waters.
Winds diminish below Gale Force by late Friday night, while seas
subside, but winds will likely remain above SCA criteria through
Saturday. Winds may drop to sub-SCA levels Saturday night to
Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late Thursday
     night for MEZ001-002-004>006-010-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Friday for MEZ003.
MARINE...Gale Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/LaFlash
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Buster/LaFlash/Clark
Marine...Buster/LaFlash/Clark