Belfast, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXUS61 KGYX 230736
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
236 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north tonight, bringing another round of
steady rain to the area tonight and into Saturday. The broad
system will be slow to exit, with chances for precipitation
diminishing late in the day Saturday into Saturday night.
Conditions will start to dry out Sunday into Monday as the low
pressure lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Another low pressure
will bring the next chance of widespread precipitation around
Tuesday of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A vertically stacked low pressure will remain quasi-stationary
over the Canadian Maritimes today. This system will continue to
retrograde precipitation back into the forecast area from off
the Gulf of Maine. Rain will continue this morning with modeled
pops lowering over New Hampshire and western Maine during the
afternoon hours. Some snow will mix in across the highest
terrain.

High temperatures will be relatively uniform across the region
with lower 40s in the north to upper 40s across the south.

Winds and mixing levels will slowly increase today and moving
forward. Have used a higher blend tool for gusts with peak winds
reaching as high as 40 mph, with higher gusts across the
elevated terrain which matches well with our GYX Probability
Plots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Gusty northwest winds will continue tonight. This will keep rain
showers confined to the northern higher terrain, with once again
snow mixing in as snow levels lower with time.

The large upper level system will remain over eastern Canada on
Sunday. Mixing levels will increase allow for very gusty winds
once again. Upslope snow showers will continue to accumulate
over the highest terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long Term Update...

Ensemble suites remain consistent on bringing precipitation into the
area during the Tuesday through Tuesday Night timeframe, but have
trended slightly lower in terms of QPF. Uncertainty remains on how
organized this system will become by the time it`s moving through
New England. A much wider spread amongst the models continues for
the system later in the week. This one continues to have the
potential to be a more impactful system, but the GEFS continues to
show a much weaker and less impactful system than the Euro
Ensembles.

Full Discussion...

If anything develops south of the mountains, it will diminish
toward sunset Sunday, but scattered snow showers will continue
in the mountains through at least Sunday night, possibly into
the first part of Monday as well. The rest of the area will see
dry conditions on Monday as high pressure briefly builds with
still somewhat breezy conditions.

The next shot at widespread precipitation occurs either late
Monday night or Tuesday as models are in good agreement showing
a progressive system crossing through. Ensemble means from the
GFS/ECWMF suggest QPF on the order of 0.25" to 0.50" with this
system, and most of this is expected to be rain, except snow or
even a mix is possible across the north and higher terrain. It
should be noted that a few solutions (mainly the ECMWF) are
farther south with the low pressure which would in turn bring
the potential for the wintry precip a bit farther south as well.
This system quickly exits Tuesday night with a dry day for
Wednesday, other than the usual upslope snow showers in the
mountains.

There remains a signal in today`s 12Z model guidance in a
developing low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic and lifting
northeast toward the end of next week. As alluded to in
yesterday`s discussion, there is more confidence in a colder
airmass moving into the region, and this low could bring the
first measurable snow of the season for portions of NH and
western ME if it comes to fruition. Some guidance is suggesting
as early as Thursday night, but there is a better support within
the ensembles to favor Friday or even Saturday for the higher
PoPs at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...North winds increase by this morning, gusting 30
to 35 kt at times Saturday. Winds slacken overnight, becoming NW
into Sunday morning. Ceilings will begin to improve towards VFR
for terminals outside of the mountains late this afternoon.
This comes as the RA shield pulls east. More in the way of snow
is possible for this evening for terminals NW of the mountains.
Snow showers continue in the mountains tonight with IFR
conditions.

Long Term...HIE may continue to see MVFR cigs and/or snow
showers Sunday into Sunday night, but otherwise VFR conditions
expected Sunday and Monday. Winds will be continue to be breezy
on Sunday with gusts 25-30 kt, possibly up to 35 kt on
occasion. A brief rain or snow shower may also occur south of
the mountains Sunday morning or afternoon, but chances look like
they`ll be too low for any TAF inclusion once we get to that
point.

Another system expected to move through around Tuesday with
flight restrictions looking more likely. Precip type is expected
to be mainly rain, but there could more of a mix at HIE and
LEB. VFR returns Wednesday, except the possibility of upslope
rain/snow showers at HIE once again.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure will consolidate over Nova Scotia,
with a tight pressure gradient across the region. A long period
of gale conditions will result today and Sunday, potentially
lasting into Sunday night. Can`t rule out a few gusts to Storm
force along the Midcoast as the low nears Saturday afternoon.

Long Term...Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a
tight gradient will keep at least SCA conditions on Sunday and
Sunday night, but it`s certainly possible gusts could continue
to exceed gale force during the day Sunday, especially over the
outer waters. Some improvement is possible on Monday or Monday
night winds and seas increase again on Tuesday into Tuesday
night as low pressure quickly crosses the region. Brisk westerly
winds follow this system on Wednesday, and there`s potential
for another low pressure to pass near or just south of the
waters toward the end of next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Clair