Bangor, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

038
FXUS61 KCAR 241144
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
644 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today through Monday.
High pressure will briefly crest over the area Monday night. Low
pressure will approach from the Great Lakes on Tuesday...cross the
area Tuesday night...then lift to our north on Wednesday. Another
low may begin to approach from the southwest late Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
640 am update...
Only minor chgs needed to ingest latest obs into forecast. Minor
tweaks to precip this morning but no significant changes needed.

Prev discussion blo...
Vertically stacked low spinning near Prince Edward Island as of
08z this morning. Weaker vort max will dive into the base of
the parent trof this morning from srn Ontario as seen on wv
imagery. With lift from both upr lvl features expect that precip
will fall mainly over northern zones tda.

Light snow is expected this morning before mixing with and
eventually changing to rain showers over parts of the area this
afternoon. Snow showers should persist over the higher terrain
in the North Woods with possibly 1 to 3 inches over northern
Somerset County.

Extensive low clouds over the region will keep temperatures
around 40 acrs the north, in the lower 40s over Downeast but
near freezing over the North Woods. Northwest winds will be
gusty again today, though more on the order of 30-35 mph.

For tonight upr low will finally begin to kick out into the
North Atlantic with precip winding down toward morning. This
looks to end as a period of snow showers over the north with a
dusting to up to one inch possible into Monday morning. NW winds
look to remain gusty overnight with pressure gradient remaining
tight as skinny ridge axis approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We will be along the far western edge of low pressure lifting
through the Northern Maritimes on Monday. This will continue to
bring a gusty northwesterly wind. An isolated shower is possible
across the far north. Otherwise, Monday will remain mostly cloudy
over the north, and become mostly sunny across the south in
downsloping winds.

The wind will diminish Monday night as a thin ridge of high pressure
crests over our area. Some low clouds will likely linger over the
north while the south remains mostly clear.

Our focus on Tuesday turns to a new low approaching from the Great
Lakes. Primary low pressure will lift up to our northwest with an
occlusion leading to a triple point low developing over the Maine
coast. This low will bring rain across the area with forecast
thicknesses indicating that it may be cold enough for snow over the
far north. The intensity of the secondary low developing along the
coast will be critical in determining how much snow may fall across
the north. Latest models are showing a small secondary low which may
be strong enough for a period of wet snow over northern Aroostook
County and parts of the north woods. If the low develops quicker and
becomes deeper, colder air may pull further south as precipitation
continues which would mean parts of Eastern Aroostook County may get
snow too.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will be located over Quebec Tuesday evening. The
occlusion extending across our area to the small coastal low will
lift northeast and push into the Maritimes as drier air slides up
into our area from the southwest. Snow over the far north and rain
elsewhere will move away to the northeast late Tuesday evening.
The north will remain mostly cloudy while southern areas have
partial clearing. Low pressure will be over Quebec while the
triple point occlusion lifts across the Northern Maritimes on
Wednesday. High pressure will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
This will bring a gusty westerly breeze with a mostly cloudy sky
north and a partly sunny sky Downeast.

Our focus on Thursday will be on a new low quickly tracking
northeast from the Gulf Coast states. Forecast models currently
differ considerably on the track of this system with the GFS
carrying the low south of us and the ECMWF lifting the low up into
our region bringing a chance for significant snow Thursday night
into Friday. The GFS eventually carries the low up into the
Maritimes Friday night into Saturday with a chance for some wrap-
around snow late Friday night into Saturday. This has the potential
to be the first significant snowfall for parts of the north
depending on the eventual track.

Low pressure consolidates and intensifies over the northern
Maritimes on Sunday setting the stage for strong gusty and cold
westerly winds with snow showers scattered over the north. The
strong gusty winds, and snow showers north, may persist through
Monday as deep low pressure remains over the northern Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR expected across northern terminals today, though
may see FVE in and out of IFR this morning with cigs right
around 010. VCSH over Aroostook terminals this morning with
some MVFR vsbys from 15-22z in snow showers mixed with rain
showers. Downeast terminals likely to be VFR next 24 hours.

NW winds will be gusty today and this evening between 20-25kts.

SHORT TERM:
Monday...VFR, possibly briefly MVFR at times over the far north. NW
winds.

Monday night...VFR, Light NW winds becoming calm late.

Tuesday...VFR, lowering to MVFR then IFR during the afternoon. SE
winds.

Tuesday night...IFR, becoming MVFR north and VFR south late. Light W
winds.

Wednesday...VFR. Light WSW winds.

Wednesday night...VFR. Light SW to S winds.

Thursday...VFR lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR late. Light SE
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale force winds continue today and tonight out of
the west-northwest. Seas range from 3 to 8 feet over the
intracoastal waters and from 5 to 8 feet over the outer waters.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA will likely be needed late Tuesday night through Wednesday
night for W winds gusting up to 30 kt. Seas may build up to 8 ft
over the offshore waters in response to the winds. A SCA may be
needed again late Friday night into Saturday for winds gusting
up to 30 kt. A gale may be needed over the waters late Saturday
night into Sunday for strong gusty westerly winds around low
pressure in the Maritimes.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Buster/Bloomer
Marine...Buster/Bloomer