Ruston, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS64 KSHV 040417
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1017 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

A quick update to adjust temps and pops overnight. Although clouds
are moving into the region from the west, mostly clear skies
continue to hang across our northern and eastern zones. This generally
includes Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest/South-Central Arkansas,
and Northeast Louisiana. With light winds in those locations,
temps have dropped a little faster than originally anticipated. In
fact, temps have dropped to near or slightly below freezing in
these locations already. So, I made some adjustments to temp grids
to account for this. Also, radar imagery across Texas is already
detecting precip, in association with a developing sfc low across
South Texas, as far north as the Houston area. Some of this
precip will likely rotate into our far western East Texas counties
by midnight, so decided to add POPs earlier to the overnight
forecast and extend POPs more eastward and northward before
daybreak to account for this earlier push. This now has our
western Louisiana zones, including the Shreveport/Bossier metro
area, with slight chance POPs before daybreak. There was a small
concern that with the freezing temps and the faster push of
precip, things could get interesting for a few hours in our
northern and eastern zones. However, current thinking is that
temps will warm to just above freezing right before daybreak in
those areas as clouds and southerly winds proceed the precip. So,
any precip that falls should remain all liquid. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Our promised next chances of rainfall will be heralded by the
arrival of returning cloud cover from the southwest this evening,
overspreading the entirety of the region as daybreak approaches.
Overnight low temperatures will consequently range considerably,
from the middle 40s south and west to near freezing again north and
east, where temperatures will still have most of the night to
plummet before cloud cover arrives.

The latest guidance puts the start time for showers at just before
dawn in east Texas, spreading east towards I-49 through the morning,
with the greatest confidence and coverage during the afternoon and
evening hours Wednesday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but
widespread organized convection is not expected at this time.
Accumulations within the next 2 days look to total between half an
inch to an inch and a half across the ArkLaTex.

Guidance is split considerably on high temperatures Wednesday,
ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. This discrepancy appears to
result from the combination of warming trends influenced by
southerly winds and inhibition of warming in the form of cloud cover
and rain cooling. NBM looks to split the difference, and have
elected to follow suit, aiming for highs ranging from the lower 50s
north to lower 60s south, followed by lows in the middle 30s north
to lower 50s south overnight into Thursday, while rainfall begins to
come to an end from northwest to southeast.

SP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Thursday looks to be the brief hiatus between systems, while the
arkLaTex finds itself under a small area of ridging sandwiched
between a vast trough over the northeast and a deepening cutoff low
over the Desert Southwest. Skies look to clear somewhat, especially
north, while clouds remain along and south of I-20. Dry conditions
look to prevail, with post-frontal air bringing temperatures back to
highs in the 50 and lows at or slightly below freezing across the
region, with middle 20s possible in southwest Arkansas.

Upper level steering ahead of the aforementioned cutoff low will
swing our next chances of rain into the region early Friday,
beginning an unsettled and deeply soggy pattern to continue through
the weekend and into early next week, with near-areawide PoPs
persisting through the early hours Monday. As the low begins to open
up into a longwave trough and push eastward, Monday looks to see
gradual clearing quickly followed by another impulse of rainfall to
close out this extended forecast period. The latest QPF values for
the week ahead depict totals ranging from an inch and a half
northwest to between 4 and 5 inches south and east into Louisiana.

Temperatures will remain cool to close out this week with highs in
the 40s and 50s and lows near freezing, with a warm up to highs in
the 60s and 70s this weekend, and lows in the 40s and 50s,
continuing into early next week.

SP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

For the 04/06Z TAF update, an incoming area of low pressure will
swiftly move into the area from the west to instigate -RA and
MVFR/IFR vis/cigs starting after 04/16Z through the end of the
period. Southerly winds will prevail through the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  47  56 /  20  90  80   0
MLU  33  57  46  53 /   0  80 100   0
DEQ  30  52  36  53 /  10  60  10   0
TXK  37  54  41  54 /  10  70  40   0
ELD  29  53  40  51 /   0  80  70   0
TYR  46  57  47  58 /  30  90  40   0
GGG  41  57  46  57 /  20  90  60   0
LFK  46  63  52  59 /  30  90  80  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...16