New Iberia, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

537
FXUS64 KLCH 111129
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level low will linger in the region into Monday with
  scattered showers and temperatures 5 to 15 below normal.

- Runoff from the recent rainfall will continue to produce
  elevated hydro flows with numerous river points expected to
  remain in flood through the weekend.

- High pressure building in early next week will lead to drying
  conditions and a warming trend through end of next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Low pressure continues to spin right overtop the region. Upper low
now spans the entire state of Louisiana while attendant surface
low spins over central Mississippi. Clouds are spreading down
through east TX/north LA around the backside of the upper low,
with a few light showers noted by radar in the Lakes region.

Expect this trend of cloud cover moving in and light rain showers
to spread over the entire forecast area this morning. Generally,
less than 0.10 inch of rain is expected due to the lack of strong
lift and instability, but there could be a more rigorous shower
or isolated storm possible in the afternoon.

Upper low is expected to slowly lift northeastward on Monday. Rain
chances will greatly fall, but will remain around 5 to 15 percent
in east and northeast areas to account for any remaining wrap-
around moisture/showers.

The pattern does remain rather active from here. While the low
slowly moves northeastward late Monday into Tuesday, a few low
level features try to develop on Tuesday. Sfc high pressure
spreading westward from Florida, combined with a weak surface trof
to the west will combine to elevate southerly flow. This brings
about a strong return of moisture into Wednesday. At this time, no
rain chances are expected from late Monday to the end of the short
term period (Wednesday morning).

Much cooler temps are expected today under northerly flow and
thick cloud cover. Highs are expected to top out in the upper 60s
for far inland areas and low to mid 70s nearer to the coastline.
Decreasing cloud cover into the early work week will bring about
a warming trend. Expect the upper 70s to low 80s, and upper 80s
to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Ridging moves in aloft from the west to start the longterm period.
Between this influence aloft and surface ridging still extending
westward from Florida, dry weather is, for the most part, in the
forecast through the remainder of the work week.

Upper low moves across the central US later in the week. This
system gets shunted off to the north around surface high pressure,
but resulting elevated flow may result in some cloud cover
returning Thursday and beyond.

A boundary extending from low across the Great Lakes Region tries
to break down the surface ridge on Saturday. This may result in
very scattered rain chances (less than 20 percent) across extreme
central Louisiana during afternoon hours. Otherwise, no rain
chances expected.

A marked increase in temperatures can be expected Wednesday and
beyond as heights increase aloft. Highs in the lower 90s across
most of the area (upper 80s near the coastlines) can be expected
each day. Daily dewpoints in the 70s will bring about max Heat
Indices in the lower 100s. Now is the time to prepare for these
kinds of hot temperatures: spend time outdoors acclimating, drink
plenty of water and fuel your body properly before going outdoors
to work.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Upper and lower low pressure centers continue spinning over the
northern Gulf states. Upper low spans the whole of Louisiana,
while the surface low is slowly meandering west into the Louisiana
Delta. This surface low will spin down through central Louisiana
throughout the day today and then will meander back east overnight
into Monday. Scattered light showers are expected across all
terminals today. Some convection may linger after sundown, but
will dissipate quickly.

Weather across the TAF period is very dependent on the surface
low. Winds, currently from the west and west northwest will vary
somewhat today but should generally remain from the west-northwest
and less than 10 knots. The only exception being BPT, the site
furthest from the low and the site within an area of enhanced
winds on a pressure gradient. After sundown, or 01z, winds will
diminish across the board.

Ceilings are dropping as cloud cover and moisture wrap back
around the upper and surface low. Expect MVFR CIGs to prevail
during daytime hours with some periods of IFR to LIFR with any
developing showers. CIGs will likely fall to 500 to 1000 ft after
01z tonight.

VIS is largely dependent on showers. Observed VIS with light rain
has been 2 to 3 SM. If caught within a shower, expect low VIS
within this range. Patchy fog may develop after after 07z
tonight.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow will persist over
the next several days with a surface low meandering over the north
central Gulf states. There could be periods of scattered showers
and thunderstorms over offshore waters due to proximity of the
low. The system shifts off to the northeast at the start of the
week as high pressure moves in aloft from the west. A surface high
develops over Florida and spreads west on Tuesday, resulting in a
prolonged period of onshore flow that will last through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  57  78  59 /  40  10  20   0
LCH  70  58  80  65 /  40  10  10   0
LFT  72  58  78  64 /  30  10  10   0
BPT  72  57  82  66 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11