Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS64 KSHV 111933
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
233 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The upper level trough responsible for yesterday evening`s frontal
passage reaches the extent of its amplification along an axis
running the length of the Appalachians tonight. From there, the
trough lifts northeast towards New England, while a closed low
develops as it moves off shore. This departure clears the way for
the ridging which has remained over the Rocky Mountains for much of
this week to press its own eastward advance, resulting in the
ArkLaTex resuming its warming trend this weekend while skies remain
mostly clear and weather conditions remain quiet.

In truth, yesterday`s surface boundary was only a cold front in the
strictly academic sense, and today`s high temperatures may well
result in understandable questioning of whether such a front
interacted with our area at all. The front`s passage is most clearly
evident in the return to northwest winds, which will adopt an
easterly orientation before daybreak tomorrow, while lows fall into
the middle to upper 40s north and lower 50s south. Given recent
trends of temperatures noticeably exceeding guidance by midmorning,
elected to nudge tomorrows highs up 1-2 degrees from the NBM, aiming
for middle 70s northeast and upper 70s to lower 80s south and west,
followed by a milder night of lows in the 50s areawide.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

By the middle of the weekend, the upper level pattern will be
ushering in the ridging which will accelerate our warming trend
rapidly, aided by a return to southerly surface winds. Sunday will
find the ArkLaTex looking at highs in the 80s areawide, with our
southern and western sites taking aim at the upper 80s, followed by
more 80s Monday afternoon to usher in next week. The ridging will
get absorbed into upper level flow around a deepening closed low
over the Great Lakes, resulting in zonal flow over the Four State
Region early next week. Guidance depicts a surface cold front
pushing in from the north late Monday into Tuesday, evidenced only
in temperature trends, while PoP grids remain quite dry. Tuesday`s
return to highs in the 70s will be followed by a quick warm up and
the return of 80s into Wednesday and Thursday.

Late week rainfall chances continue to appear, influenced by an
emerging shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft
sweeping southeast towards the ArkLaTex. However, the latest
ensemble is more limited in the scope of potential impacts, with
coverage now retreating far enough north of I-30 to barely enter our
CWA at all Thursday, only making a southward push towards US-84
overnight Thursday into Friday, with PoP values remaining fairly low
throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the 11/18Z TAF period. Northwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots today to become light and variable
overnight. Winds to become southeast and increase to 4 to 7 knots
on Saturday as surface high pressure shifts east of the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2025

Spotter activation is not expected across the Four State Region
attm.

53

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  81  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  48  76  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  44  76  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  48  78  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  44  78  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  81  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  81  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05