Bayou Cane, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS64 KLIX 181018
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
418 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 406 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Dense fog advisory will be issued for mainly protected waters.
This fog could move a short distance inland over areas north of
water bodies as well but should rapidly dissipate as it moves
farther inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The current cold front causing our wx is moving east over eastern TX
this morning and will be moving through our area around noon and
exiting by the evening hours. Instability is not really strong but
peaks from noon to around 3p today for coastal SELA. CAPE values are
still weak even during that time frame around 600J. There could be a
storm or two that develops as the front is moving through, but this
is not going to be a widespread storm event with severe wx, but a
strong storm could occur briefly between those hours. This is not
the story obviously, but the story is on its way this morning in the
form of an arctic front that is now moving south through Missouri.
No storms expected with this front and eventhough some clearing will
occur behind this first front, the arctic front moving through late
tonight into early Sunday will clear the skies of anything left.
Temps will just keep getting colder and colder as Sunday progresses
and we should be in a the upper teens north to upper 20s at the
coast. We will be issuing an extreme cold watch (cold weather
advisory) for these temps Sunday night into Monday morning as wind
chills will also be in the low to upper teens as well. We will also
be issuing a winter storm watch this morning that will be valid for
Tuesday. More on this in the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

CAA will be strongest Sunday through Wed with a modifying trend
starting Wed but this won`t be a quick modification but tack on a
few degrees each day bringing us to the upper 30s for highs for
Wed and mid to upper 40s for Thu. Lowered temps for Tuesday since
we should wick down to meet or near dew pt numbers keeping the
area at or below freezing all day excluding areas along the coast.
Confidence is now high enough that we have issued a winter storm
watch with accumulations anywhere from 3 to 8 inches for much of
the area Tuesday. It would not surprise me to see a few snow
bursts cause around 12" accumulations, but this should be isolated
in areas north of the interstate 10/12 corridor. Some icing will
be possible as well and all of this could and most likely will
cause hazardous travel conditions all day Tuesday. This should be
fairly straight forward for messaging as the watch will initially
be for midnight to midnight Tuesday. Eventhough there will be no
wintry precip falling Wed, winter wx headlines may be extended
through Wed since the ending of the wintry precip would be around
midnight Tue/Wed morning and most likely would not all melt Wed
especially in shaded areas. There should be enough melt to improve
travel conditions by Thu though. Probabilities are very high for
this far out in time of getting >.25" equivilent which range
higher than 30% for almost all areas with some higher than 50%
from BTR eastward for Tue. Probabilities are higher >70% for
wintry precip simply occurring over any portion of the CWA Tue. As
we approach the end of the week, we should see all this melt and
conditions improve as we slowly warm but they won`t warm enough to
put the coat away.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

VFR to MVFR cigs will remain through the morning hours with VFR
sweeping through from the NW starting around noon today and
completing the area by evening. Some VFR to MVFR cigs will reform
this evening again for mots of the overnight hours but this will
become all VFR by sunrise or shortly after. There is a high enough
chance of SHRA today to at least mention in this taf set through
noon but should be moving offshore afterwards.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Advisory flags will reamin this morning for southerly winds around
20kt but will drop by mid morning. Some showers with a few storms
will make their way through the waters today and move out by
evening. Winds will shift to NW this afternoon. NW winds will then
slowly rise to around 25kt Sun into Mon as arctic air plunges over
the norther gulf adn headlines will be brought back up for this. A
sfc low will develop Mon over the western gulf and move east
bringing northerly winds possibly up to gale force early Tue and a
gale watch may be issued by late Sunday or Monday. A cold rain will
also accompany these winds for most open gulf waters and some wintry
precip over the coast and protected waters areas. The sfc low should
be east of the area by Wed with winds coming back around to E and
easing to around 20kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  32  42  19 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  74  37  47  24 /  30   0   0   0
ASD  73  38  48  23 /  40   0   0   0
MSY  72  41  48  28 /  40   0   0   0
GPT  69  39  48  23 /  40  10   0   0
PQL  73  40  52  23 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-
     076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE