Winchester, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS63 KLMK 111426
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1026 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Frost Advisory tonight into Saturday morning.

* Drier conditions with warming temperatures are expected this
  weekend.

* A low-medium confidence chance for strong storms arrives next
  Monday. Gusty winds and hail are the primary severe threats.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Upper trough is working across the region this morning. Cooler air
advecting in from a northerly flow will keep a lingering low stratus
deck around into the early afternoon and even some light rain and
drizzle across central and southern KY for the next couple of hours
as this activity weakens and drops south. Clouds will slowly clear
from north to south later this afternoon. Only change to expand the
PoPs across south central KY this morning. Other than that the rest
of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Currently, a positively tilted upper trough is sitting over the
Lower Ohio Valley with an upper ridge behind it over the Rockies,
but as we head through the day, the rotating trough will push off to
the east. This will bring an end to remaining rain showers over
southern Indiana and central Kentucky as the system`s corresponding
surface low slides to the Atlantic Coast.

This afternoon, as upper ridging and surface high pressure centered
over the Midwest work into the region, skies will begin clearing
from the northwest over the CWA. Our relationship to the surface
high will keep CAA in place, limited high temperatures to the 50s.

Tonight, as the surface high continues to slowly ease towards the
CWA, winds will ease under clear skies. This will allow for
radiative cooling with light CAA. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the mid 30s across most of southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. It`s possible a few areas could see below freezing
temperatures, and some in far southern Kentucky, could remain above
35. With most areas expected to remaining slightly above freezing
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, went ahead
and issued a Frost Advisory across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Saturday through Sunday Night...

Upper level ridging will build into the region on Saturday and
Sunday resulting in dry and increasingly milder conditions.  Highs
on Saturday look to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Lows
Saturday night will drop back off into the mid-upper 30s in most
locations.  Some patchy frost will be possible across the Bluegrass
region of central Kentucky.  For Sunday, we`ll see an increase in
southerly flow across the region with stronger warm air advection.
This should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 60s over
much of southern IN and central KY.  Some lower 70s will be possible
across southern KY.  Lows Sunday night will exhibit a west-east
gradient, with lows around 50 in our east and in the mid-upper 50s
west of I-65.

Monday through Thursday...

Moving into next week, an upper level trough axis is forecast to
move through the Great Lakes while dragging a surface cold front
through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Looking at forecast
model soundings across the region, we do continue to see an increase
in low-level moisture pooling ahead of the front.  Aloft, an
elevated mixed layer is still forecast with steep mid-level lapse
rates.  Hodographs are still forecast to be rather straight and
elongated while bulk shear values remain above 30kts.  The overall
setup argues for organized severe storms along the front with hail
and damaging winds as the main threat.  However, uncertainty remains
a bit high considering that the overlap between the best forcing and
instability remain displaced.  Additionally, the model sounding also
show a bit of mid-level capping below the EML which may be an
inhibiting factor for convection.  The progressive flow aloft will
keep precipitation amounts down through this time frame, so any
precipitation amounts will not exacerbate ongoing hydro issues.

Highs Monday will be in the low-mid 70s with lows Monday night
cooling back into the mid 40s.  Looking beyond Tuesday, upper level
troughing will settle across the eastern CONUS with a northwest flow
prevailing across the region.  Breezy conditions are expected on
Tuesday with below normal temps as highs struggle to get out of the
upper 50s to around 60.  Lows Tuesday night will drop back into the
upper 30s/lower 40s.  Dry conditions are expected for Wednesday with
highs in the lower to middle 60s.  The next weather system looks to
push into the region on Thursday with showers likely and highs in
the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Rain showers are about to exit southern Indiana and will continue to
drift off to the southeast through central Kentucky. This has caused
ceilings to quickly fall into the IFR and fuel alternate MVFR
categories across the region as a large area of stratus works south
from Indiana and Ohio. Ceilings should begin improving as we head
into the afternoon hours. North winds could also gust to near 20
knots this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW