Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS63 KJKL 111729
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
129 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A parade of cold fronts will continue over the next week, with
  one departing the area today, another one arriving Monday night,
  and yet another one expected on Thursday. Each system carries a
  potential for precipitation.

- Temperature swings can be expected over the next week due to the
  quick moving nature of significant weather systems.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025

No major changes made to the forecast grids as they`ve been
largely on track. Only made a few touch-ups to post-frontal
temperatures, PoP from radar trends and Sky from satellite trends.
Lastly, radio and text products have been updated to reflect the
changes. Grids have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 713 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025

No major changes to the forecast. Updated the T/Td
fields with the latest observations. Low pressure is currently
centered between the Richmond and Mt. Vernon areas with a cold
front pushing southward through the area today. Showers along and
ahead of this front have been ongoing through the night and are
expected to push south and out of the area by late morning or
early afternoon. A thunderstorm or two this morning can`t be ruled
out, mainly along and south of the Hal-Rodgers parkway area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025

Radar shows a band of scattered showers slowly moving northward
across the forecast area, with the lows center of circulation
apparent on radar, located between Louisville and Lexington. Finer
resolution models have these showers continuing their slow
progression northward only for a few hours, at which time the lows
center is modeled to propagate southward as it follows the
progression of an upper level jet. Current winds and temperature
fields show the lows cold front starting to push through. Showers
and and a possible thunderstorm or two will slowly progress
southward and leave the area by mid-morning. Some lingering showers
will continue through noon along and south of the Hal-Rogers/Ky-80
corridor. Post frontal northerly winds will bring cooler
temperatures to the area with temperatures climbing into the low to
mid 50s through the afternoon. Skies will likely hold onto cloud
cover through the evening, slowly thinning out after midnight. Winds
are anticipated to be fairly light and out of the north. With
clearing skies, especially along and west of I-75, temperatures will
drop into the lower 30s. Further east, clouds may hang around a bit
longer through the overnight hours. This difference may keep
temperatures slightly warmer in the mid to upper 30s. This is
especially important because widespread frost will likely develop in
areas west with the clearer skies and cooler temperatures. With this
anticipation, a Frost Advisory has been issued for an area from
Bell to Elliot counties and west from 2 AM through 10 AM Saturday
morning.

While looking at 500-mb height charts, most of Kentucky will be
under the inflection point of the exiting trough and incoming ridge
through the day. That essentially means that northerly winds can be
expected through much of the day, which will certainly hamper
temperature climbing out of the mid 50s for the day. Dry and cool
conditions are expected. The good news is with the pattern shift on
the horizon, warmer weather is as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 554 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025

The period will start with surface high pressure over our area
drifting southeastward. Aloft, an East Coast trough will be
departing eastward while ridging builds toward us from the west.
The scenario results in mostly clear skies and lights winds in a
still dry air mass, giving good radiative cooling conditions.
Frost can be expected, especially in valleys. Once the high is to
our southeast on Sunday, low level flow from the south to
southwest will bring warm air advection and give a significant
warm-up.

The next upstream system then becomes a factor locally. A
shortwave trough currently off the British Columbia coast should
be moving east over the northern plains Sunday evening, developing
into a closed low and riding through a larger, deepening trough.
It will support a surface low pressure system over the Midwest.
Both the surface and upper level systems will reach the upper
Great Lakes on Monday. The deep surface low will send a cold front
southeast through the JKL forecast area Monday night. Its
approach and passage will bring a decent shot at showers and
thunderstorms (current forecast is a peak POP of mainly 50-70%).
The system`s quick movement will limit the time available for
moisture return, but its potency may outweigh the moisture`s
shortcoming. After readings in the 70s on Monday, many places may
not get out of the 50s on Tuesday behind the cold front. A
shortwave trough rotating through the larger scale eastern CONUS
upper trough could bring a fair amount of clouds and possibly
some showers on Tuesday, especially in our eastern counties,
further impeding diurnal warming.

Surface high pressure will arrive from the west Tuesday night and
Wednesday, providing clearing. If clouds were to break up and
winds die down on Tuesday night, that could again set us up for
more frost. The high is forecast to depart eastward Wednesday
night and the next weather system will already make its approach.
Warm/moist advection of the system will bring increasing clouds,
eventually building to another shot at showers on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025

Terminals across the area are largely IFR with this TAF issuance.
KSYM is the only site that`s MVFR but all sites will see gradual
improvement through the afternoon into the overnight. As for the
very near term, showers are moving out of the area and CIGS are
starting to improve from north to south. As the surface low and
accompanying cold front move out of the area, CIGS will decrease
and lift to VFR which is largely expected around 06Z tonight
minus KSJS which will see VFR around 12Z/Saturday. Winds are a
little breezy out of the north but those will diminish to light
and variable after 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-114-116.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST