Owensboro, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

132
FXUS63 KPAH 231122
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
522 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will bring a warming trend and high temperatures
  in the 60s on Sunday and Monday.

- A cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers on
  Monday afternoon and evening, followed by much colder
  temperatures Tuesday.

- Chilly and rainy weather is forecast for Thanksgiving Eve and
  Thanksgiving Day.

- The coldest temperatures and wind chill values of the season
  are possible beginning next weekend into the first days of
  December.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Today through Monday night... Surface high pressure located over
the central/southern Great Plains will gradually translate
eastward and become centered over the Mid-South through the
weekend. This will bring a warming trend in temperatures,
especially Sunday into Monday.

Today`s weather will be a battle between stubborn low stratus
across much of southeast MO, southern IL, southwest IN, and the
KY Pennyrile and drier BL air infiltrating from the west. Model
guidance shows the saturated BL inversion gradually eroding
during the morning and afternoon hours from SW to NE. This will
result in the most sunshine and warmest temperatures across
southeast MO, while parts of southwest IN, southeast IL, and
northwest KY stay fairly cloudy until the middle to late
afternoon. High temperatures will range from the middle to upper
50s across southeast MO to the upper 40s to lower 50s across
southwest IN.

Sunday will be much sunnier and warmer across the forecast area,
with high temperatures warming well above normal, into the lower
to middle 60s. Cloud cover will increase Sunday night into
Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Some light
rain showers with this front will push through the region Monday
afternoon and evening. High temperatures will still reach the
middle to upper 60s despite the cloud cover and rain chances
thanks to breezy SW winds, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of
of 20-25 kts through the daytime hours.

Tuesday through Friday night...Following the passage of the cold
front Monday evening, sharply colder, below normal temperatures
will filter into the region. High temperatures Tuesday will
reach the middle to upper 40s in most areas, with increasing
cloud cover in the afternoon.

The period of Wednesday through Friday looks to be quite
unsettled, which unfortunately means a soggy and chilly
Thanksgiving is expected. A southern stream disturbance will
organize over the southern Great Plains and push eastward
through the Mid-South during this period. Surface low pressure
looks to stay south of the region over western and middle TN, so
the forecast area will be on the cold side of this system.
Despite this, forecast thermal profiles still look to be too
warm for frozen precipitation here, so it looks to be a cold
November rain, mainly from Wednesday afternoon through
Thanksgiving and into Friday morning.

There has been a shift southward with the track of the surface
low in most of the ensemble guidance, which has resulted in
down tick in expected rainfall totals. Rainfall amounts during
this period now range from about 0.25-0.50" along the
Interstate 64 corridor and areas southwest into southeast MO to
about 1.00-1.25" along the KY/TN border region. The rain and
clouds will keep high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s
on Wednesday, the middle to upper 40s on Thanksgiving, and
upper 30s to middle 40s on Friday.

Beyond Friday...While technically beyond the seven day forecast
window, wanted to highlight growing confidence in a wave of well
below normal temperatures that will impact the region for the
weekend after Thanksgiving into the first couple days of
December. While this cold does not look to be record-breaking,
it will be by far the coldest of the season. High temperatures
in the 30s and lows in the 10s and 20s are probable during this
period, along with wind chill values possibly as cold as the
single digits. Check for updates in the coming days as the
details come into focus.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Saturated boundary layer inversion has resulted in widespread
low MVFR stratus across the region early this morning. As high
pressure spreads drier air into the region, these clouds will
gradually scattered out from SW to NE through the morning into
the afternoon hours. Once the stratus dissipates, only passing
high cirrus is expected for the remainder of the forecast
period. Light W-NW winds will gradually veer SW and eventually S
by tonight, generally between 3-7 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS