Mount Washington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

073
FXUS63 KLMK 170126
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
926 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Warmer temperatures Friday.

*  Shower and thunderstorm chances over weekend. Slight chance of a
   few stronger storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Forecast remains in good shape overall. Did knock MinT down a couple
degrees in the Bluegrass, closest to the center of high pressure
over West Virginia at 12Z. As a result, added some patchy frost into
the forecast in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Tonight, an upper ridge will continue advancing east towards the
Ohio Valley while pushing a north to south oriented surface ridge
east of the CWA. This will keep skies mostly clear and winds light
to calm across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Temperatures
will drop into the upper 30s across the Kentucky Bluegrass and warm
to the west-southwest into the upper 40s west and southwest of
Bowling Green.

Tomorrow, as a surface low under the back side of the upper ridge
crosses the Plains, increasing the pressure gradient between it and
the aforementioned surface high (over the Appalachians). Responding
breezy southeast winds associated with a warm front will push north
and lift temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across much of the
CWA to the mid 70s in and around Logan County, KY.

During the late morning, models still show a line of light showers
beginning to move through the CWA as Gulf moisture passes to the
northeast with the front. Model soundings also continue to show dry
low levels, so given this and the system is under a ridge, believe
the forecast will trend drier. Better moisture is expected to remain
to the north, passing through central Illinois and central Indiana.
Rain chances will move off to the northeast by the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Thursday night and Friday upper ridging will move overhead while a
dome of surface high pressure off the Carolinas reaches
southwestward to and along the Gulf coast. This set-up will foster
dry conditions and warm temperatures in return flow, with highs
Friday afternoon around 80.

This weekend low pressure will cross eastern Canada with its cold
front trailing back to Texas. With the parent low moving northeast,
possible waves riding along the baroclinic zone, and strong surface
high pressure over the North Atlantic, forward progression of the
front will be slow. As a result, showers and storms will be in the
forecast for several periods Friday night through Monday.

However...the convective corridor ahead of the front will be
relatively narrow, keeping close to the boundary. So, the location
where this front sets up will have a large impact on what areas see
rain. So far, it appears that the front will line up and wait just
to our west. WPC and ensembles are in good agreement that the
heaviest rains from this system will be found from Texas to Indiana,
with southern Indiana and central Kentucky more on the edge of the
heaviest precip axis. So, at this time, this does not appear to be a
repeat of the heavy rains we saw earlier this month. Nevertheless,
areas that are still dealing with lingering flooding issues should
keep an eye on this system and stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

SPC, in agreement with CSU-ML, NCAR-AI, and NSSL-ML, suggests a
slight chance of severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening,
generally along and just either side of the Ohio River. There will
be some instability as temperatures rise to around 80 with dew
points around 60, and plenty of shear for organized storms. Frontal
position will play a pivotal role, along with the degree of mid-
level capping and morning clouds/rain.

The flow aloft becomes zonal by Tuesday/Wednesday, leading to a
decrease in forecast confidence as we get out into the later
periods. Trends do suggest that the main concentration of any severe
storms next week should be over the central and southern Plains,
with quieter (though not necessarily dry) weather for the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Tonight will be mostly clear with light variable winds as high
pressure moves through the region. Tomorrow an upper level
disturbance will increase mid clouds but with dry air between the
cloud base and the surface little more than non-impactful sprinkles
or light rain is expected...most likely in the afternoon. Winds will
pick up tomorrow as tonight`s high moves away, and may get a little
gusty out of the SSE at HNB/BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13