Lawrenceburg, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KLMK 110122
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
922 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Pleasant and mostly dry for the weekend. 30-40% chance for
   showers Sunday afternoon for south-central KY.

*  Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday
   night into the middle of next week.

*  Warming trend for later in the week, with temps in the upper 80s
   forecast for Thursday and Friday.  However, unsettled weather
   likely to continue through this period as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Current forecast remains on track this evening.  Plenty of high
clouds streaming northward across the region courtesy of an upper
level low to our south.  A light northeast flow was noted across the
region with temperatures cooling into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Not expecting much change in the weather overnight.  Plenty of high
clouds will remain in place with lows bottoming out in the low-mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

The Lower Ohio Valley remains in the middle of a split upper jet. At
the surface, high pressure stretches south from the western Great
Lakes and pancakes along the southern Plains and east up the Ohio
Valley. To the south, a stacked low pressure system sits just east
of the Lower Mississippi, over southern Mississippi and Alabama.
It`s this system that is producing waves of high level clouds that
are working north over the CWA, and the pressure gradient over the
CWA is keeping winds out of the east-northeast to northeast today.

Tonight, upper flow will push the surface high that is currently
near the Great Lakes farther east, allowing the low pressure system
over the South to slide slightly westward before traveling north, up
the Mississippi River. There is a chance that some outer bands of
precipitation could make it into south central Kentucky after
midnight. Model soundings look very stable and dry in the low
levels, so if anything falls it would only be rain showers. Low
temperatures under the continued cloud cover and northeast winds
are expected to drop into the low to mid 50s.

Tomorrow, any showers over southern Kentucky would come to an end
during the morning before increasing again during the afternoon and
evening hours. With the system continuing to work north along the
Mississippi, pressure will continue falling over the CWA throughout
the day as precipitation chances increase across southern Kentucky.
Model soundings don`t look severe, but enough instability will exist
to fuel possible thunderstorms. Winds will continue veering towards
the east as high temperatures reach the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...

Closed upper level low is expected to be over the MS Delta region
Sunday night.  The pattern aloft is a bit of a Rex block pattern so
am not expecting the upper level low to move much in the east-west
direction through the early week period.  However, recent model
guidance strongly agrees that the upper low over the delta region
will drift northward Sunday night and into Monday.   We`ll get a
good moisture fetch off the Gulf and with daytime heating, we`ll see
scattered to numerous rain showers and embedded thunderstorms across
the region.  While instability may get above 1000 J/kg in the
afternoon, the deep layer shear across the region generally stays in
the 25-30kts range.  So the overall severe weather threat for Monday
looks rather low across the region.  An axis of stronger shear looks
to extend from FL northeast into GA/SC during the day where severe
weather may be more confined.  Overall, Monday looks to be a rather
wet day across the region.  The main weather threat on Monday would
be locally heavy rainfall with highs in the lower-middle 70s. Shower
activity will likely become much less widespread Monday night as we
lose daytime heating, but we`ll still carry chance PoPs in this
period with lows upper 50s to the lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the upper level low should be right on top of the
region.  We`ll see some daytime heating and a diurnal max of showers
and a few storms will be seen during the afternoon.  Model profiles
show some instability across the region. However, bulk shear
continues to look even weaker than it does for Monday afternoon.
Slow moving heavy rain showers is likely to be the main weather
story here.  Slow storm motions are expected given the lack of
steering winds.  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs
will be in the 1.25-1.3 inch range.  If showers were to sit over a
location, localized flooding of poor drainage and low-lying areas
could become an issue.  Highs again will be in the low-mid 70s.
Showers will likely continue into Tuesday night, but overall
coverage should rapidly decrease after sunset with the loss of
heating.  Lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

By Wednesday, the upper low will slowly shift off to the east-
northeast and continue to weaken.  Overall shower coverage should be
considerably less here as the focus of lift pulls away from the
region and heights start to rise to our west.  Overall, best chances
of rain for Wednesday would be along and east of the US 27/127
corridor with decreasing chances as you get back toward the I-65
corridor.  Highs may exhibit a gradient here with upper 70s out in
the I-75 corridor with lower 80s generally west of I-65.  Lows
Wednesday night should be a bit milder with readings in the lower-
middle 60s.

Thursday through Saturday...

As we move into Thursday, continued mid-level height rises will
build across the region.  Overall, most locations look to remain
dry, but a few isolated/scattered showers/storms could be seen
across portions of SE IN and into southern OH and northern KY. Temps
will really start to warm up here as readings will push into the mid-
upper 80s.  Not sure if we`ll break 90 across the south considering
the ample soil moisture and the lush green vegetative cover we have
at the moment.  I`d say the urban heat island of Louisville would be
the most likely spot to hit 89-90 Thursday, if current trends pan
out.  Upper level trough axis will be well to our northwest on
Thursday allowing storms to fire across the Midwest which probably
will be severe.  Some storms may get down into southwest IN, but
most ensemble guidance generally keeps the best rain chances
along/north of the I-70 corridor.  We`ll keep an eye on Thursday
night to see if we get any southern development down into our region
as frontal boundary drops southward toward the area.

For Friday/Saturday, it appears that we`ll have a frontal boundary
in the vicinity Friday and into Saturday.  The extended models have
quite a bit of spread here with varying solutions.  Model soundings
suggest that we`ll have instability and some shear, so scattered
strong/severe storms will be possible through this time frame. Highs
Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s.  Maybe a little cooler on
Saturday with highs in the lower-middle 80s.

Beyond Saturday...

Looking into the deeper extended period, it appears that an active
pattern across the CONUS will be on upswing starting next week and
continuing through late May and into early June.  The global models
have been showing some strong signaling with the Indian monsoon
starting up next week and then getting into full swing by late May.
Going through some old tropical meteorology notes, I do recall that
we typically see lower pressures/heights across the Pacific NW when
the Indian monsoon gets going, with a more broad southwesterly flow
picking up over the Plains and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley.  This
is usually accompanied by an uptick in severe weather in these areas.

This is showing up quite well in the AI and normal Euro runs showing
rather broad ridging across our region next weekend and into week
three.  Signal analysis has been strongly suggesting a signal
passage centered around 5/21 or so.  The dynamical models agree with
this as well, which gives me somewhat more forecast confidence. This
signal may end up being a strong/severe episode for our region.
Something to watch over the next week.  After that, broad western
CONUS troughing may develop resulting in a downstream NW flow for
the Ohio Valley leading into Memorial Day weekend.   This could at
least keep our temps during this time period in the normal to
slightly below normal range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period.  High
pressure will remain in place across the region with light ENE/NE
winds holding sway overnight.  Upper level high clouds from a closed
upper level low to our south will continue to spread northward
through the period.  Some lower cigs will develop across southern KY
during the day on Sunday, but these cigs are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ