Covington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS61 KILN 031721
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1221 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts south of the Ohio Valley overnight before low
pressure takes over for the end of the week. Wednesday will feature
a brief warm up followed by a strong cold front Wednesday night with
the chance for snow showers. Cold conditions persist through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will start to push further south of the area this
afternoon into tonight. This will still allow for some clearing
through the evening as dry air mixes down from aloft. The calm
conditions start to end toward the end of the night when a deep
surface low in Canada deepens the pressure gradient over the Ohio
Valley. Southwesterly winds increase prior to 6am as the synoptic
setup evolves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong low pressure system progresses southeast just to north of
the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The pressure
gradient around the low will lead to gusty winds across the Ohio
Valley throughout the period. For the daytime hours on Wednesday,
strong southwesterly flow will help advect in warmer air leading to
highs spiking into the lower to middle 40s for most locations. Mixed
precipitation chances for rain and snow cannot be ruled out during
the day.

After 6pm, a strong cold front is forecast to quickly progress
through the Ohio Valley bringing potentially impactful weather.
Temperatures drop below freezing behind the front and gusty winds
shift to the west/northwest. At least some snow shower coverage is
expected behind the front. A few snow showers could be locally heavy
since there is some indication for saturation into the DGZ,
steep low level lapse rates, and the temperatures will be
dropping. Limiting factors for snow shower intensity are lack
of deep moisture through the DGZ, modest forcing in the DGZ,
and the strongest PV anomaly (forcing) remaining north of I-70.
Given possible snow showers, there is also the chance for some
local accumulations that could impact local travel at times. Regardless
of snow shower potential, temperatures are forecast to drop
into the teens by Thursday morning and winds will result in wind
chills near 0.

Cold and windy conditions remain in place on Thursday as the
aforementioned deep surface low continues moving east. Forecast
highs only rise into the 20s and forecast wind chills remain in the
teens most of the day. Depending on the exact wind direction in
relation the Great Lakes, some enhanced cloud cover and potential
snow showers are possible along and north of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley on
Friday and push off to our east through the day on Saturday.
This will allow for developing southwest flow and moderating
temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures by Sunday will be
back to near normal with daytime highs in the 40s. A mid level
short wave moving through the Ohio Valley may eventually lead to
a chance of rain early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR ceilings have persisted near the Ohio River early this
afternoon. Elsewhere, diurnal mixing has helped lift or disperse
cloud bases. Ceilings are likely to continue to trend toward VFR
this afternoon as dry air gets mixed down from aloft. VFR ceilings
may persist through the overnight before clouds increase on
Wednesday. The current forecast calls for VFR ceilings through 1800z
Wednesday, but there is a possibility ceilings lower prior to 1800z
as warm air advection increases. Rain ans snow shower chances
increase after 1800z Wednesday while ceilings continue to lower.

Winds back to the southwest this evening and decrease to 5-10 knots.
Southwesterly winds start to increase after 0600z Wednesday reaching
upwards of 20 knots with higher gusts by 1800z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible through Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Campbell