Shawnee, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS63 KEAX 111127
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Near to above normal temperatures over next week plus
  - Warmest days will be this weekend ... 70s Sat, 80s Sun
  - High temp normals around mid 60s across the area

* Best precipitation chances not until mid-late next week
  - Low end (<20%) shower chances overnight Sunday into Monday
  - Moderate (20-50%) shower/thunder chances Wednesday/Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A predominantly quiet and pleasant 7+ day forecast ahead with
near to above normal temperatures and a couple precipitation
opportunities, though at least one of them are trending drier.
But before we get into those details...

Shortwave trough responsible for widely scattered showers and
evaporatively enhanced gusty winds has shifted SE/away within the
larger NW upper level flow. Hot on its heels is another
shortwave trough, currently over Iowa and showing up nicely on
WV imagery. Unlike shortwave that moved through during daytime
Thursday, nocturnal timing of this wave and poor lapse rates
within the profile result in nil instability. Expect primarily
low to mid-level cloud cover to result near and east of Highway
65 through morning, dissipating during the afternoon. Shortwave
will also help suppress temperatures a few degrees over
yesterday as it ushers in 850mb temps approaching 0 deg C in
conjunction with light northerly surface winds and surface high
pressure building in. This will likely result in temperatures
near to a few degrees below normal in the mid-upper 50s (east)
to mid-upper 60s (west). Generally a pleasant spring day,
especially as cloud cover dissipates.

Western CONUS ridge begins to build into the Plains/central CONUS
Friday and through the weekend, but its effect will not be felt
locally until the weekend. As surface high departures Friday
overnight, southerly winds return, beginning a two-day warming
period. Developing surface low pressure over Colorado Front
Range will tighten surface gradients and push southerly wind
gusts into the 20s if not lower 30s mph, primarily over NW
Missouri and areas westward into Kansas Saturday. Surface low
moves off of the Front Range late Saturday in response to
approaching northern stream shortwave trough, shifting winds
more southwesterly by Sunday and peak wind gusts in the 20s to
mid 30s mph eastward across Missouri. Coupled with rising 850mb
temps through the weekend, into the teen deg C by Sunday, high
temperatures will jump around 10 deg F each day... mainly 70s
Saturday and up to the mid 80s Sunday.

The warmup will short lived though as a cold front associated with
the northern stream shortwave trough and its surface reflection
pushes across Missouri late Sunday into Monday, dropping highs
back towards normal in the 60s. Flagship synoptic models and
their ensembles continue to trend drier with this frontal
passage. Between GFS/Euro ensembles, only about 20% of members
show any precipitation with frontal passage limited by dry air
in place and inability to overcome strong capping inversion.
Ribbon of mid-level moisture is present, but that alone appears
unlikely to result in precipitation reaching the ground with no
available instability dry air to overcome. As the parent
shortwave trough sweeps into the Great Lakes Region, upper level
ridging gets squashed and a reinforcing northern shortwave
turns flow northwesterly by Tuesday and through the remainder of
the forecast.

Surface high streaming in Tuesday keeps highs near normal and
conditions quiet and clear into Wednesday before next, and
best, opportunity for showers/thunder moves into the area. Fair
degree of spread between synoptic guidance and ensembles when it
comes to both strength and timing/evolution of a northern
stream shortwave diving out of Canadian Plains, resulting in
fairly broad low to moderate (20% to 50%) PoPs from Wednesday
through Thursday night. Inevitably, precipitation will not be
present that entire time, but highlights the differences among
solutions. Prevailing solution and highest period of PoPs
(40-50%) results Wednesday night/overnight with moisture return
and LLJ. Uncertainty is also highlighted when looking at max
temp spreads increasing to 12 to 16 deg F by Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

MVFR cloud deck continuing to drop/rotate out of Iowa will stay
east of TAF sites. Result being VFR conditions through the
period. FEW/SCT040 my bloom across the area this afternoon,
otherwise SKC. Winds remain around/under 10kts out of the N
through daytime before shifting clockwise overnight and settling
out of the SW/SSW late in the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis