Salina, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXUS63 KICT 050800
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon
  and evening along/north of Highway 50, with a few strong to
  severe storms possible.

- Off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast
  through the next several days, with low confidence on timing
  and location. A handful of strong to severe storms are
  possible.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages the
  next several days, with highs generally in the upper 80s to
  mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

PRECIPITATION:

TODAY...Expect hit-or-miss showers across central and eastern Kansas
today, ahead of a mid-level trough progressing east, amidst
unseasonably high precipitable waters. Thinking chances by this
afternoon will be highest mainly over eastern/southeast KS. Brief
heavy downpours will be the primary hazard with this activity.

Our attention then turns to the potential for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly
along/north of Highway 50, as a weak cold front stalls across
central KS. This activity has the potential to be strong to severe,
given steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater instability, amidst
marginal deep layer shear. The hail threat should be marginal,
although hefty DCAPE values should support a strong to severe
downburst threat. The severe threat should end by late evening,
although non-severe activity could fester past midnight aided by a
weak low-level jet, and mid-level troughing approaching from the
north.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Per deterministic and ensemble consensus,
the upper ridge is expected to flatten some, remaining primarily
south-southwest of the region the next several days. This will keep
Kansas within a favorable storm track consisting of subtle mid-upper
perturbations approaching from the west-northwest. This in concert
with a couple weak stalled frontal zones across the area should
support continued periodic shower/storm chances Sunday through next
week. While widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely,
modest flow aloft should support the deep layer shear needed for at
least a handful of strong to severe storms. The hail threat will
likely be marginal, with strong to severe wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall the main threats, especially during the late
afternoon and evening hours each day.

TEMPERATURES:

With the upper ridge flattening some and remaining primarily south-
southwest of the area, along with periodic shower/storm chances,
mostly seasonable temperatures are expected for at least the next 7
days across the region. Overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s-
low 70s, and daytime highs ranging from the upper 80s to the mid 90s
are probable, with a low chance for intense above average summer
heat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Concerns:
1) Showers and possible thunderstorm in NC KS for next few hours
2) MVFR ceilings mainly in SC KS this AM

Showers and some thunderstorms which developed in western Kansas
continue to track slowly eastward but show a diminishing trend.
The best chances are across north central Kansas with the
activity in the south expected to decrease prior to KICT.
Amendments may be needed in the short term with any
precipitation activity exiting this morning. Any thunderstorm
could produce reduced visibility and maybe slightly stronger
winds. An increase in moisture from the south will bring MVFR
ceilings primarily across south central Kansas from around
12-16Z when there should be enough mixing into the afternoon.
Winds should stay primarily out of the south at 5-15kts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...VJP