Ottawa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

013
FXUS63 KTOP 181129
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms develop this afternoon. While
  the severe weather potential is low, a couple of storms could
  be strong and produce small hail and strong wind gusts.

- Warming up through late this week with Friday and Saturday
  looking like the hottest days. Heat indices around 100 degrees
  are expected Friday and Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough making its way
across the central CONUS early this morning with a mid-level
ridge across the western US. Rain continues across east-central
Kansas along the nose of the low-level jet, but this activity
will exit the area over the next few hours. Even with some light
to moderate rain still falling, the heaviest rainfall and the
potential for flooding has ended and the Flood Watch has been
cancelled. By this afternoon, the environment becomes uncapped
with 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and effective shear of 25-30kts,
but lift is modest with only a subtle perturbation moving across
northeast Kansas. Even so, this wave looks to provide enough
ascent for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop
this afternoon. The severe weather potential is low, but the
environment would support a few strong to marginally severe
storms given elongated, straight hodographs and around 1000 J/kg
of DCAPE. The threat diminishes after sunset this evening as a
weak surface ridge builds into the area overnight, leading to
clear skies and light winds. Southerly flow returns on Thursday
with the aforementioned mid-level ridge building over the
Plains. Highs steadily warm through the end of the week,
reaching the mid 90s to near 100 degrees Friday and Saturday.
Dewpoints in the mids 60s to low 70s will create heat index
values around 100 degrees area-wide Friday and Saturday
afternoon.

Hot conditions continue into early next week, although the
ridge is pushed east by a deepening western CONUS trough. This
aids in knocking temperatures and dewpoints down slightly, but
highs remain in the low to mid 90s through Tuesday. Chances for
precipitation are low through the weekend, but do increase
(20-35%) late Monday into the middle of next week as several
waves eject northeast in the broad southwesterly flow and a
surface boundary sags towards the area from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Primarily VFR conditions expected. Fog is reducing VSBY at
KMHK, and KTOP/KFOE could have a brief drop in VSBY before fog
burns off quickly this morning. A period of MVFR cigs is
possible through the morning, but confidence remains too low to
include flight restrictions. Scattered storms are expected to
develop this afternoon, but coverage remains in question.
Maintained a PROB30 group given lower confidence in direct
impacts to terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan