Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

753
FXUS63 KTOP 262343
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
543 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers move across the area Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Some snow flurries could mix in during the morning and
evening hours, but no accumulations are expected.

- Cooler air moves in by Thursday and through the weekend.

- Light snow possible Saturday morning, mainly across
  northeastern and east-central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Mid-level water vapor imagery today shows zonal flow across the
middle third of the US with ample moisture continuing to stream in
from the Pacific coast, a positively-tilted shortwave over the PNW,
and another upper low over the Great Lakes region. Closer to the
surface, lee troughing has deepened across southeastern Colorado in
response to mid-level vorticity maxima over the Rockies. This has
progressively tightened pressure gradients across central and eastern
Kansas, strengthening WAA from the south. Temperatures thus far
today have warmed into the low to mid 40s across the area with high
temperatures today expected to top out in the mid to upper 40s with
warmer air settling across central Kansas.

Overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning, the shortwave over the
PNW will lift across the central Plains, pushing the surface trough
and low east towards the Mississippi River valley. Two lobes of
vorticity will eject across the Plains, one staying southwest of us
across south-central KS with the other lifting north towards the
Great Lakes. Lift associated with each lobe of vorticity will be
greatest in their vicinity with areas in-between these seeing a
decrease in mid-level lift. That said, there still should be
sufficient enough mid-level lift to generate light QPF across
eastern Kansas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temperatures during
precipitation chances will mainly remain above freezing, mainly in
the upper 30s and low 40s, so rain will be the predominant
precipitation type. There could be some isolated areas in northern
Kansas late Wednesday morning and southeastern Kansas Wednesday
evening/ Thursday morning that see a light rain/snow mix as
temperatures dip closer to freezing. Even if some snow could mix in,
any accumulations are not expected. Did add mention of flurries and
sprinkles into the forecast based off forecast soundings showing dry
air below the mid-level ceilings that could help to sublimate some
precipitation that falls during the day Wednesday. Overall, not
expecting too much in terms of total QPF either, generally equating
to less than 0.15 inches area-wide.

By Thanksgiving day, surface ridging builds into the region bringing
a chilly air mass, but dry conditions. Expect Turkey Day highs
topping out in the upper 30s and low 40s with lots of sunshine!
Expect slightly cooler temperatures Friday as another push of cold
air enters eastern Kansas with temperatures likely struggling to
reach 40 degrees Friday afternoon. Overnight Friday and into early
Saturday morning, mid-level energy embedded in the northwesterly
flow pattern pushes across the region and could lead to some light
snow showers across northeast and east-central Kansas. With the
quick nature of the system and saturated profiles only a few hundred
millibars deep, not expecting too much in terms of accumulations,
but could see areas across northeast and east-central KS pick up a
quick dusting to 0.5 inch by late Saturday morning. There still is a
fair amount of variation between deterministic guidance in the
positioning of the main snow band, so there still could be a shift
west or east in this system in the coming days, so stay tuned for
further details. Beyond Saturday, cold air moves back into Kansas
from the northwest, trapping temperatures in the 30s Sunday and
Monday with lows each morning dipping into the low to mid teens!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR is forecast to continue through the period. Southerly winds
diminish this evening, becoming light and variable overnight
before turning around to the north by mid-morning. Some light
rain looks to move through during the afternoon. Timing may be
adjusted slightly in future issuances, but it should push south
of terminals before the end of the period while cigs remain VFR.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Picha