Liberal, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

439
FXUS63 KDDC 161902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very isolated storms tonight with hail and wind threats

- Hot, windy, and high fire danger Thursday

- Much colder Friday

- Still very large uncertainty Sunday for precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

There will be low chances (20-24%) of very isolated storms tonight.
The atmosphere will be capped and low level moisture is lagging,
so areal coverage should be limited. There is a boundary located
across west-central Kansas and some storms may form off of that.
CAMs are not in great agreement with convective placement, so did
broad-brush the FA with low pops to account for the uncertainty.
CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg may develop this evening along with 40-45 kt
of bulk shear. So we could get a strong to severe isolated storm
or two this evening. The main threats would be some hail and wind.
Storms will probably be pretty high based, since dewpoints are not
expected to be higher until later tonight. Unfortunately, much of
the FA will probably remain dry tonight with this low precipitation
potential.

Hot, windy and high fire danger is expected Thursday. Some blowing
dust may also occur with the strong winds. Highs in the 90s and decreasing
dewpoints behind a dryline will lead to very low afternoon relative
humidity (5% to 10%). Have upgraded the entire FA to a Red Flag Warning
to account for this threat. Do not burn as any fire could become
quickly out of control.

A front will traverse across the state early Friday morning. With
the quick fropa and decent CAA in its wake, felt it was best to undercut
the NBM and go with the NBM25. The GFS lags the front compared to
the EC, but that looks like to be an outlier compared to other models.
Anyway, starting a cooler trend seemed to be the way to go given
the strong and early fropa. Highs could be as much (or maybe even
more if the trend continues) 30 degrees colder on Friday than compared
to Thursday. Will have to watch for possible freeze headlines Saturday
morning across the northwest counties as the locations have already
past our 16 April criteria for a headline. An even colder morning
looks certainly possible Sunday morning if there are not too many
clouds lingering.

There might be a drier trend in both the deterministic as well as
the ensemble models Sunday. WPC has trended the higher QPF southeast
and east of the FA. All the higher boundary layer moisture looks
to remain across Oklahoma to southeast Kansas, so the drier trend
looks to be the way to go. But a cool day and some showers around
still looks possible.

The next business week looks to feature split flow aloft. This would
suggest warmer than normal temperature and a mainly dry forecast.
However, there might be hints in the long range models at increasing
storm chances next week, but confidence is low.

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Southwest winds will blow 15-25 kt through the evening. There is a
chance of very isolated TSRA this evening. Areal coverage is expected
to be very limited. Will not include TSRA/CB groups in the TAFs now,
as confidence is very low, particularly for any significant impacts
to any particular terminal. Another 50-65 kt LLJ may impact KDDC/KLBL
and could lead to LLWS for these terminals through the overnight
period. Southwest winds will be 20-30 kt tomorrow with gusts of 33
to 45 kt during the day. BLDU may be possible tomorrow during the
day, but confidence is also too low to include this early in the
TAFs for tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A critical/Red Flag Warning day is still expected Thursday. Very little
in change of thinking in the forecast. Hot highs, very low relative
humidity of 5% to 10%, and strong southwest winds will set the stage
for high fire danger Thursday. As a result, have upgraded the entire
FA to a Red Flag Warning. Do not burn as any fire could quickly become
out of control.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden