Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

682
FXUS63 KDDC 111653
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1153 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher fire danger on Saturday and Sunday

- Temperatures warming to near 100 degrees for areas along the
Colorado border on Saturday

- Minor chances of rain (~20%) in northern Kansas Sunday night and
across southwest Kansas midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

07z observations and upper air analysis shows a large trough in the
eastern parts of the country and a large ridge in the west.  In the
central plains the upper flow is out of the northwest with a jet
streak in eastern Kansas.  A large 1026 mb surface high over central
Nebraska is leading to clear skies and light winds across Kansas.


Today the ridge in the west slowly moves into the central plains and
the surface high pressure also moves eastward.  This will lead to
the winds switching to the south.  As a shortwave moves over the
Rockies develops a surface low on the lee side we should see winds
pick up during the afternoon to around 15-25 mph.  Temperatures
should warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday will be much warmer with a higher fire danger.  The ridge
in the west dampens as a trough enters the Pacific northwest.  The
surface low in eastern Colorado deepens to around 993 mb by
afternoon.  Winds across western Kansas should be primarily out of
the south however closer to the Colorado border they should be more
out of the southwest.  The southwest winds should provide a more
downsloping heating effect and 850 mb temperatures will warm close
to 30 (C).  Temperatures west of highway 83 will reach into the 90s
as NBM guidance is at 100% for reaching 90 degrees as highs.  We
could be nearing 100 for areas along the Colorado border.  Highest
fire danger will be mainly in the far southwest from Johnson to
Sublette on south through the Oklahoma panhandle.  HREF
probabilities of wind gusts over 25 mph and relative humidity values
falling to 15% or below is at 50-100% for these areas.

Sunday will be highlighted with a couple of cold fronts moving
through western Kansas.  The first will move through in the morning
and will switch the winds to the northwest and will become breezy
through the day.  Temperatures should still be warm as the first
front won`t have the strongest CAA and highs should get back into
the 80s and near 90 along the Oklahoma border.  The stronger cold
front moves through Sunday night as a large upper level trough moves
through the northern plains and with a stronger 700 mb shortwave we
could see some scattered rain showers mainly along the I-70
corridor.  QPF at this point looks light as LREF output is only
showing a few hundredths of rain.  The rain should wrap up by sunrise
Monday morning and temperatures should be much cooler with highs in
the 60s.

Rain chances will be small for midweek (~20%) as LREF upper level
patterns have a weak trough moving through Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with clear skies.
As a weak surface high pressure system exits the forecast area,
winds will strengthen out of the south. Around 7Z, all terminals
will see some LLWS through about 14Z. Gusts may reach and exceed 30
KTs by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Enhanced to near critical fire danger on Saturday as winds pick up
out of the south to southwest to around 15-25 mph and gusts around
30 mph.  Strongest winds will be along and east of highway 283 and
the lowest relative humidity values will be along and west of
highway 283.  HREF probabilities of wind gusts over 25 mph and
humidity values 15% or less is at 50-100% mainly along and south of
a Johnson to Sublette line.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...KBJ
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro