Emporia, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS63 KTOP 230836
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
236 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with warming temps expected today and Sunday.


- There remains a 20 to 30 percent chance of wintry weather
  Wednesday and Thanksgiving morning. Any snow is expected to be
  less than an inch.

- Colder weather is forecast to end the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Early this morning at 08Z a long wave trough was over the eastern
Pacific with a ridge in the eastern Rockies and sliding into the
high Plains. At the surface high pressure was present over Missouri
into eastern Kansas, while southerly return flow was occurring
across the western high Plains into central Kansas.

For today the mid level ridge builds eastward into the Plains as a
shortwave moves from the Pacific Northwest into Saskatchewan
Province this afternoon. Warm air advection will allow temperatures
to warm into the 50s to lower 60s today. A cold frontal boundary
will move southeast across north central and northeast Kansas
through the day and into east central Kansas by evening.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal for Sunday with the
bulk of the cooler air moving in during the evening hours, so still
expect highs in the upper 50s behind the front to the mid 60s south
of the front.

Colder high temperatures in the 40s are expected Monday and Tuesday
with a slight warmup on Wednesday, mainly across east central Kansas
with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The main focus for this forecast will be the potential for mixed
precipitation Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning. 00Z models
continue to show agreement with an open wave moving through the
central Plains. Ensembles show a similar agreement with the
deterministic models as well. However precipitation chances remain
in the 20 to 30 percent range and the probability of an inch of less
of snow is generally 15 to 30 percent across the area with the
higher probabilities north of I-70. Main take away for now will be
to keep abreast of later forecasts and that minor travel impacts are
expected Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning.

Another push of cold air moves in behind a cold front ushering
arctic air into northeast Kansas. This will result in highs mainly
in the 30s for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Light and variable winds through sunrise become more southerly
during the morning hours and strengthen to around 10 kts. Expecting
VFR conditions to continue through the period. Can`t rule out some
shallow patchy fog through sunrise, but increasing high clouds will
tend to limit this.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Reese