Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

340
FXUS63 KICT 111734
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday
  with cooler readings for the start of the work week.

- Very high fire danger on Saturday due to strong south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Currently have an upper trough that extends from the Great
Lakes region into the Tennessee Valley with upper ridging
through the Rockies. This setup places the Plains under strong
northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure extends from
the Upper Mississippi Valley into Western KS.

Upper trough is expected to track slowly east tonight into Sat
as some shortwave energy comes on shore over the Pacific
Northwest. This feature is forecast to approach the Northern
Rockies by Sat afternoon which will allow lee troughing to
strengthen. So after very pleasant conditions today, south winds
will ramp-up for Sat, with afternoon sustained speeds in the
25-30 mph range with gusts 40-45 mph. Deep mixing will also
bring highs on Sat around 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Upper impulse will continue tracking southeast and by Sun
afternoon will be moving across the Northern Plains. A cold
front is expected to take shape on Sun and start its push south,
late Sun afternoon through the evening hours. However, before
the front moves through, temps will soar, with highs Sun in the
upper 80s to around 90 across south central and southeast KS.
Behind the front, we are looking for temps to be knocked down to
seasonal normals for Mon and Tue, with highs in the mid to upper
60s Mon and around 70 for Tue.

By 00z Wed, upper troughing will be in place across the Eastern
CONUS with upper ridging across the Rockies. This setup will
allow lee troughing to once again deepen. The GFS is more robust
with some upper energy to slide across the Rockies and out
across KS on Wed compared to the ECMWF and Canadian. This
results in the GFS generating considerably more showers and
storms across the area late Tue night through Wed. Not
completely ready to rule out the wetter GFS as it does have
decent run to run consistency with this impulse. Unlike precip
chances, have much higher confidence in above normal temps
returning for Wed through Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Could temporarily see near-MFVR conditions through
20Z at RSL given fires in the area. Otherwise, northerly winds
will continue to become more southeasterly throughout this
afternoon. Current trends suggest these becoming stronger and
southerly after 12Z Saturday.

Additionally, LLWS at central KS sites is anticipated late
tonight into the early morning hours as the low-level jet picks
up. This is expected to weaken by mid-morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Very high grassland fire danger likely Saturday due to strong
south winds.

Strong south winds will overspread the area on Sat afternoon and
early evening as lee troughing strengthens. We are looking for
south winds sustained in the 25 to 30 mph range with gusts 40 to
45 mph. Lowest afternoon RH values are forecast to be in the 25
to 35% range. These conditions will bring very high grassland
fire danger to all of central and most of south central KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...RBL