Augusta, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS63 KICT 112054
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle and rain showers mainly along/east of I-135 Friday
  afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable to above normal temperatures through the middle of
  next week.

- Additional chances for rain to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Current water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a potent
mid/upper longwave beginning to lift over New England as northwest
flow aloft dominates the scene over the Central Plains. Surface
analysis reveals a stalling cold front stretching from Kansas up
toward Lake Michigan. This boundary will keep afternoon highs in the
upper 30s and low 40s from north central Kansas to the southeast
corner, while areas to the west are expected to reach the middle 40s
and low 50s.

.TEMPERATURES...

As the next weather-maker approaches from the west, high
temperatures Thursday will strongly vary from south to north as the
aforementioned frontal boundary stalls across central Kansas. This
will result in highs ranging from the upper 30s and low 40s in
central Kansas to the upper 40s and middle 50s in south central and
southeast Kansas. Following the passage of the weather system to
follow, seasonable to above normal temperatures (upper 40s and 50s)
will persist throughout the forecast area through the middle of next
week.

.PRECIPITATION...

Upper shortwave energy is progged to eject out of the Southern
Rockies into the Central Plains on Friday. The resultant warm front
will lift northward into central and eastern Kansas throughout the
afternoon and should have sufficient moisture to work with for rain
and drizzle especially along and east of I-135. The latest mid-range
models suggest most of this activity should occur in regions with
above-freezing temperatures within the forecast area, so the risk
for freezing drizzle appears minimal at this point. Showers will
continue to develop through the overnight hours and provide much-
needed rainfall to areas mainly along and east of the Flint Hills.
Stay tuned as trends for this next system continue to be monitored.

After a relatively quiet Sunday, a busy pattern looks to emerge as a
second upper wave is progged to roll into the Central Plains per the
long-range deterministic suite late Sunday night into Monday. The
associated cold front is expected to provide lift sufficient for
additional rainfall in eastern Kansas throughout the day. More
shortwave energy may make its way through the region on Wednesday
and bring more chances for precipitation to the forecast area,
though details that far out remain fuzzy at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side for
the next 24 hours.

Not much is expected to change over the next 24 hours with
northwest flow aloft remaining in place across the Plains and
deep upper low over the northern Great Lakes region. Confidence
remains high that VFR conditions and relatively light winds will
remain in place through this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL