Augusta, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

758
FXUS63 KICT 162037
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm potential this evening-overnight.

- Extreme grassfire danger Thursday, mainly west of I-135.

- Off-and-on rain/storm chances late Friday through Sunday,
  highest over southeast Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of a dryline late this
afternoon over southwest Kansas. There remains some uncertainty on
this activity being able to develop and/or sustain itself given
marginal moisture, weak forcing, and associated capping issues.
Thinking the highest confidence forecast is these convective
attempts progressing east this evening and expanding in
coverage/intensity over generally the eastern half of Kansas this
evening and overnight, within a zone of strengthening deep
warm/moist advection collocated with an increasing low-level jet.
Low-level moisture and associated elevated instability are modest at
best. However, given the strong warm advection amidst steep mid-
level lapse rates and impressive effective deep layer shear,
thinking at least a low-end severe weather threat is warranted, with
large hail and damaging winds the primary threats.
Showers/thunderstorms should exit eastern Kansas by around sunrise
or shortly before.

THURSDAY...Hot and windy weather will prevail Thursday, as low
pressure continues to deepen over the High Plains. Low-level
thickness values support widespread high temperatures in the low-mid
90s west of the Flint Hills, with not-as-hot 80s further east.
Record highs are possible for several locations.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A stalled frontal frontal zone in
concert with deep western CONUS upper troughing will support off-and-
on chances for showers/thunderstorms. Latest model trends continue
to give southeast Kansas and points south-east the best potential
for this rain/storm chances late Friday through Saturday evening. A
few strong to marginally severe storms are possible over far
southeast Kansas, along with locally heavy rainfall. For Saturday
night through Sunday, rain chances could expand further west to
include central and south-central Kansas, as the parent upper low
finally ejects northeast over Mid-America. Temperatures will be
below average over the weekend due to the clouds, precipitation, and
northerly wind.

NEXT WEEK...A warming trend is expected, with periodic thunderstorm
chances starting again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR ceilings are expected through this TAF period. The main
concern is thunderstorms later tonight, mainly after 01z.
Confidence is low on exact timing and coverage, so a PROB30 has
been added to all sites. After 05z, low level wind shear is
likely at HUT, ICT, and CNU with speeds up to 45 kts as a low
level jet moves in, diminishing around 10z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Strong and gusty south-southwest winds, low humidity, and well
above average temperatures will support very high to extreme
grassfire danger Thursday, highest generally west of I- 135,
where humidity values could dip as low as 10 percent during the
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-
033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC/JWK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK