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Atchison, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Atchison KS
National Weather Service Forecast for: Atchison KS
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 9:43 am CDT Jul 5, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm  in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Light east wind.
Mostly Clear

Monday

Monday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind.
Increasing
Clouds
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Partly Cloudy

Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Partly Cloudy
then Chance
T-storms
Wednesday

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 89.
Partly Sunny

Hi 88 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 89 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 89 °F

 

This Afternoon
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Light east wind.
Monday
 
Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind.
Monday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 89.
Wednesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Thursday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 92.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Atchison KS.

Weather Forecast Discussion
271
FXUS63 KEAX 051722
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered Thunderstorms Throughout Saturday

- Seasonably Warm and Humid Through This Week

- More Shower/Storm Potential This Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

H5 ridge axis has shifted eastward into the Great Lakes Region with
a short-wave trough moving across the Central Plains early this
morning. Low-level jet development overnight coinciding with this
short-wave has continued to develop thunderstorms across central
Kansas and central Nebraska that has been slowly moving eastward,
with an outflow boundary sitting over west-central Kansas. Low-level
jet axis shifts eastward along with short-wave trough through the
remainder of the morning. GOES imagery already indicating cloud
cover ahead of the activity has reached our western counties, and
starting to see some returns from both KEAX and KOAX in northwest
Missouri, but no reports yet of this activity reaching the surface.
HRRR along with other CAMs depict precipitation moving into
northeast Kansas around 10z, and then slowly moving eastward toward
Central Missouri through 15z this morning. So far storms over Kansas
and Nebraska have remained mostly sub-severe through most of the
overnight. While we do have some CAPE present, overall lapse rates
have not been overly impressive, and most of the shear has been
confined to the layer with the LLJ. Cannot completely rule out a
stronger wind gust with a few of the storms through this morning,
but severe threat likely remains very limited with this activity. By
15z, this first round moves eastward. Heading into the afternoon,
mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern CONUS and will
eventually work toward a stagnant 594dam high. However, several
downstream perturbations across the Central Plains will continue to
provide lift, and low-level tropospheric flow remains south to
southwesterly. This will maintain a healthy theta-e airmass across
region this afternoon, and continued mid-level kinematic lift may
lead to additional scattered thunderstorm activity, especially for
northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. A wild-card factor will be
if there is any lingering outflow boundary from morning convection,
that then differential heating could strengthen surface convergence.
The large scale synoptic pattern will not be overly conducive deep
layer shear limiting organization, but MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg this
afternoon with mid-level lift should be enough to develop some
stronger activity. HRRR and RAP soundings do indicate low static
stability within the boundary layer across much of the area with
shallow inverted-v structure. Certainly appears conducive to
precipitation loading, and if able to tap into dry air above 700mb,
could see evaporational cooling promote severe wind gusts with
downbursts in stronger storms. That will be the main threat
associated with storms in the afternoon and through the evening.
Freezing level is fairly high, and with the lack of deep layer
shear, would be difficult for hail stone to see substantial growth.

The remainder of the week will be characterized by several short-
waves that move over the ridge in the southwestern CONUS and eject
across the Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. Ensemble
suites hold anywhere between 15 and 30 percent probabilities for
measurable precipitation each day through next week, and the NBM has
maintained this trend. Temperatures will generally be in the upper
80s to lower 90s, and will vary based on cloud cover and
shower/storm coverage through the week. There is some signal for a
stronger H5 vort maxima on Tuesday that could result in some
stronger storm activity, but overall deep layer shear is not overly
impressive in most of the deterministic guidance available through
next week. QPF trends may need to be monitored, as some environments
may feature deep warm-cloud processes and efficient rainfall
production. Should multiple rounds of slow moving storms occur, low-
end hydro issues may pop up across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conds are expected thru most of the TAF pd. The main concern
for aviators will be the chc for lgt tsra at the TAF sites btn
01Z-05Z out ahead of a slow movg cold front. Models are hinting
at the poss of MVFR cigs late in pd behind the front aft 12Z-14Z.
Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts thru 08Z when winds
will veer to the WSW and diminish to 5-10kts. The cold frontal
passage is expected btn 10Z-14Z veering winds to the W/NW while
remaining btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...73
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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