Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

097
FXUS63 KICT 071717
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/thunderstorms exiting southeast Kansas early
this morning. Severe threat consisting of marginally
severe hail and 60-70 mph winds will persist over far
southern KS through about sunrise. Additional locally
heavy rainfall amounts will support continued flooding
concerns over southern KS through early morning.

- A few strong to severe storms possible Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night, mainly south-central and southeast
Kansas.

- Dry weather pattern Monday through Wednesday, with slight
chances for storms entering back into the forecast by
Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING:

Numerous thunderstorms are impacting mainly southern Kansas
early this morning, along/north of a stout instability gradient,
ahead of a potent upper trough approaching from the
west-northwest. Given current radar trends, thinking the
greatest threat for marginally severe hail and 60-70 mph will
be over far southern Kansas through about sunrise or a few hours
after. Additionally, pockets of heavy rainfall will support new
flooding issues and continued aggravation of ongoing flooding.
Thinking the heavy rainfall will exit to the east early this
morning, so will likely expire the flood watch at its normal
7am expiration time.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:

One final chance for scattered thunderstorms arrives Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night, mainly along/south of Highway
56, as a strong cold front drives south across the region.
Modest deep layer shear coupled with strong instability
could support additional strong to severe thunderstorms,
along with areas of heavy rainfall and continued flooding
concerns. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the
coming days.

MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:

Model consensus supports a dry weather pattern Monday through
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds south into Mid-America.
Thereafter, returning moisture may support low thunderstorm
chances returning by Wednesday night. Flow aloft looks quite
weak, so at first glance the threat for severe storms appears low.

LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND:

Building thickness coupled with evapotranspiration and associated
increased humidity could support increased high heat and humidity
concerns as we head closer to next weekend. Guidance supports
daytime highs in the 80s and 90s, with dewpoints in the 70s.
This combination would support increasing potential for triple
digit heat indices. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as the
surface low continues to move eastward. Mostly clear conditions
should prevail although with all the moisture and afternoon
heating a scattered to broken cumulus deck will most likely form
from KHUT eastward. Winds will be a bit gusty early on then
calming down later in this evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TOP
AVIATION...VJP/TOP