Andover, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

346
FXUS63 KICT 241116
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
516 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures today with a cold front moving
  through tonight and will bring cooler temperatures next week.

- Light precip event Wed into Wed night with very little if any
  impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows some shortwave energy
from Central CA into the Great Basin with another impulse over
southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, low pressure is situated
over Western KS with a cold front over Central Nebraska.
In addition, a pre frontal trough stretches from the surface low
into north central KS.

Some fog will be likely this morning over north central KS as
some of the cooler air starts to encounter the higher dewpoints.
Hays has already seen some lower visibilities and feel
confident that some of this will affect locations along and
north of I-70 through around 15z.

Confidence remains high that max temps today will be around 10
degrees above normal with most locations in the 60s with some
locations across the Flint Hills and Southeast KS getting close
to 70. Cold front is still expected to push through the
forecast area tonight and by 12z Mon will extend from Southern
MO into Southeast OK. Even though we are not looking at extreme
cold temps for Mon and Tue, it will be much cooler than we have
seen over the last couple of weeks, with highs not expected to
make it out of the 40s for most locations.

There remains good model agreement that our next upper impulse
will track across the Pacific Northwest Tue into Tue evening and
into the Central Rockies by Wed afternoon. At the same time a
weaker piece of energy will dive southeast out of the Northern
Rockies and across the Northern Plains Tue night. 00z ECMWF has
come in faster compared to the GFS and would result in light
precip starting Wed, while the GFS would keep most of the
precip for Wed night. Whichever model is correct, it still looks
like this will be a light precip event with a small chance at
some light snow mixing with rain on Wed night. So at this time
we are not looking at any travel impacts. However, confidence is
high that we will see a reinforcing shot of cold air for Thu
and Fri with lows in the teens and highs around 40 degrees for
much of Central KS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

IFR/LIFR vsbys have arisen this morning in central KS as a result
of patchy fog developing along a progressing surface trough.
Conditions are expected to gradually improve throughout the morning
hours as the boundary makes its way to the east. Impacts at
terminals to the east are not expected at this time, but will AMD as
trends continue to evolve.

Following the dissipation of fog, VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals through the rest of the period. LLWS will last through mid
morning at CNU. Otherwise, winds are expected to shift around to
the north/northwest following the passage of the aforementioned
surface trough. Gusts up to 25 kts will continue after sunset
to the end of the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK