Ottumwa, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

475
FXUS63 KDMX 111105
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
605 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather Friday with highs in the 50s. Clouds linger east.

- Temperatures warm over the weekend. Breezy conditions
  Saturday.

- Scattered showers and storms possible (35-40%) across the
  north early Sunday. A few storms could be strong with
  primarily small hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The eastern half of the are remained under the influence of the
departing low pressure overnight, hence the stratus and drizzle. A
surface high will take the low`s place Friday and provide enough
stagnant, cool air to preserve some of the clouds in the east for
much of the day, this time with enough dry air to hinder any
precipitation. Have leaned more pessimistic for highs and lows over
the east due to the clouds, followed by the slow-to-depart H850
ridge Friday night. Lee cyclogenesis will usher in southwest winds
by early Saturday, helping temperatures start to recover into the
70s in the west. The pressure gradient will remain tight as the wind
maximum pivots across the state Saturday, making for a breezy day.
Wind gusts up to 40mph or can`t be ruled out, but shouldn`t be
commonplace due to the WAA regime and midlevel clouds forming in the
north. Will continue to monitor dew points as the PBL mixes, adding
to already elevated fire weather conditions.

The potential for showers and storms remains on track for late
Saturday/early Sunday morning. This will be associated with the
arrival of the synoptic trough and less with moisture advection
since at this point, the jet axis will have veered towards the Great
Lakes region, meaning whatever forms will be elevated. There will be
around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE at play as well as cloud-layer shear of
around 60kts. Can`t rule out a strong storm or two, but the better
likelihood of strong storms pushes off quickly to the northeast
with the parent surface low. We`ll be left with cooler
temperatures Monday and breezy northwest winds. Temperatures
will recover towards 70 degrees again after Tuesday. The next
chance of precipitation arrives around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Main challenge over the next 6 hours. Short term guidance is
more pessimistic compared to obs, so have trended improvements
to VFR faster this morning for all sites, all becoming VFR
before 18z. Patchy fog is forming where pockets of clear skies
are found with low confidence MVFR vsbys possible until 14z.
Southerly winds return tonight after being variable for much of
today.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Jimenez