Dubuque, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

934
FXUS63 KDVN 301116
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
516 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild conditions continue through much of the
  forecast period, with Today and Sunday geared to be the
  warmest days of the period right now, with many hovering
  around/over 50.

- A system will bring widespread rainfall to the area this
  afternoon and through the night, departing much of the area by
  noon Friday. Some wintry mix may be seen on the back end of
  the system, but we are not expecting much on the impact side
  at this time.

- A pattern change is pointing to a period of more active
  weather over the next two weeks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

The long awaited wave approaches the area today, with precipitation
slowly moving into the area from the south this afternoon. Strong
warm advection will be seen ahead of the wave, increasing
temperatures and moisture substantially. Temperatures are expected
to soar into the low 50s for most, with the remainder hovering
around 50. Moisture will be a little slower to move in, with
saturation taking a little longer than initially expected. The
latest run of the HREF has dry air dominating much of the afternoon,
but will continue to message the chance for light rain. As we head
towards sunset, much of the area will start to be overrun by
precipitation. Thermal profiles favor the primary precipitation type
as rain through much of the event. Since the previous forecast
package, guidance has continued to warm, leaving the potential for
any snow even lower. While we cannot rule out a brief period of
wintry mix as the system exits, our confidence remains low on this
happening. Rather, we will continue to message this as just a
rainfall event.

Guidance still shows quite the spread in rainfall totals, with the
WPC remaining consistent with the QPF forecast for a widespread 0.50-
0.75". Although, HREF does indicate the potential for a narrow swath
of rainfall upwards to 1.00" or more, roughly along a line from
Fairfield IA to Princeton IL. If you dig deeper, some CAMs are even
higher, showing a swath of 1.00-2.00" of rain, influenced by the
TROWAL. Confidence on the higher end of that range is low, with
only 10-30% favorability for 1.50" or more. Thus, if we see
these higher-end amounts, it should be relatively localized.
There remains some discrepancies on where the band of
precipitation will set up Thursday night and into Friday. The
NAM is along/north of I-80, with the HRRR south of the
interstate. The HREF falls between the two solutions. As more
short term guidance and observations come in through the day, we
will start to get a better idea on where this will setup.

While frost depths remain around 12" or less, we have started to see
slight thawing of the top layer of soil, which should allow for some
of this to soak into the ground. With this largely falling as
light/moderate stratiform rain, we are not expecting much impacts
from this. Rather, wouldn`t be shocked to see some ponding of water
on roads and in fields. Although, we do have a Marginal Risk
for Excessive Rainfall for this event, given the nearly frozen
ground and much of the rainfall leading to runoff. Lower
rainfall rates should help limit the risk, but there will be a
low-end risk for flash flooding, especially in areas that see
the heaviest rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Weekend...

Upper level flow will largely be westerly, with some weak impulses
passing through the flow. Surface low track will be well north of
the area, dragging a cold front through the area late on Sunday.
Moisture return will be lacking over the local area, which should
inhibit precipitation from falling. The best moisture pools well
north of the area near the surface low. The best chance to see any
form of light precipitation will be along/north of the Highway 20
corridor, but confidence remains low. NBM keeps the PoPs just north
of the area, and we will continue to follow with that dry forecast.
With that, the weekend will still be unseasonably warm, with Sunday
geared to be the warmest day. While the moisture content will be low
throughout, the WAA that we do see will help the temperatures
skyrocket on Sunday, with most in the mid 50s! While we will have
some clouds over the area, these unseasonably mild temperatures and
light winds will result in quite the beautiful day.

Next Week...

Upper level flow remains westerly through much of the week, with
weak bouts of energy passing through the flow. We won`t see any
moisture return until at least midweek though, resulting in a dry
and cooler start to the week, as we are left in a post-frontal
airmass. Wednesday/Thursday looks to be the next chance for
precipitation, but guidance differs greatly amongst each other.
There are track differences, as well as major temperature
differences, which will dictate the precipitation type. Thus, we
will refrain from further details there and rather just mention that
it will be the next chance for precipitation, with the NBM providing
20-30% chance PoPs. Will stick with those now, given such
uncertainty. Temperatures next week do seem to largely remain above
normal still, but trending closer to seasonal norms when compared to
this current week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the start of the TAF period,
with conditions quickly deteriorating from south-north after
18z. A system approaching the area will quickly bring in
MVFR/IFR cigs as rain starts to push into the area. This will
quickly overspread the area, leaving much of the area under a
blanket of MVFR to IFR cigs after 00z. At times, we may start to
see LIFR cigs, especially at BRL in the rain. Vis will generally
range between 3-5 SM or less through the night, with the lower
end of that range being seen in the heavier showers. Winds will
largely be out of the south through the day, shifting easterly
as we approach this evening and the surface low gets closer to
the area.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel