Ames, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

464
FXUS63 KDMX 221126
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
526 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming through the weekend with above normal temperatures
  for much of the upcoming week.

- Little chance (<10%) of precipitation through the weekend
  with southwest surface winds.

- Low end, light precipitation chances (~15%) late Monday in
  northern Iowa then additional rain chances (~30-40%) late
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A quasi-zonal upper flow with a somewhat WNW-ESE orientation is
expected across much of the CONUS for the upcoming week as the upper
jet lifts back north closer to the US/Canadian border.  This flow
pattern allows warmer downslope air from the Rockies to spread east
into the central United States including Iowa with generally warmer
temperatures.  Currently, warm advection is ongoing as the arctic
airmass continues its retreat to the north and east.  Southwest
surface flow persists into today and with generally sunny skies.
This helps readings climbing to or above freezing for the first time
in 10 to 14 days across much of the forecast area.  This continues
for tonight into Sunday as the thermal ridge in the Plains pushes
toward the state.  850mb temperatures approaching the Missouri River
Valley of nearly +10C are expected by Sunday evening with
temperatures across Iowa heavily influenced by areas with/without
snow cover. Needless to say, it will feel much warmer than the past
week or so across the entire area.

A shortwave approaches the state from the WNW on Monday as the
thermal ridge slides over the state.  Highs into the 50s are likely
in much of the area as the snowpack quickly erodes given several
days of southwest surface flow and increasingly warm temperatures.
The bulk of guidance keeps precipitation just north and east of the
forecast area with only the Euro bringing showers farther south into
the state.  Have generally sided with the vast majority of the
guidance in keeping low PoPs only across the far north at this
point. Otherwise, there is a brief period of cold advection Monday
night into Tuesday morning before warm advection reasserts itself
into the state.  This is in response to the approach of the next
shortwave expected to arrive Tuesday night.  Another slug of forcing
crosses the state with the bulk of lift in northern Iowa into
Minnesota.  Moisture remains mostly limited with the threat of
isolated/scattered showers during the night as the wave passes.
There is more of a cold push behind this second system with cooler
temperatures but still above normal into the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Widespread VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the
forecast today into tonight. Some low VFR stratus will pass
across northern Iowa this morning, otherwise ceilings are
forecast to remain in mid to upper levels. Visibilities remain
unrestricted during this period with southwest surface winds.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil