Plainfield, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXUS63 KIND 031859
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies continue today and possibly tomorrow

- Highs in the upper 80s today and tomorrow

- Periodic storm chances from Wednesday through the end of the week
then again for early next week

- Potential for a few strong to severe storms Wednesday PM; isolated
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally   heavy rain all
possible

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Warmth, winds, and haze will continue through much of the short term
forecast. Upper ridging is slowly on it`s way out with southerly
winds helping to bring in WAA and highs today and tomorrow in the
mid to upper 80s. The haze overhead from Canadian wildfire smoke may
be enough to keep all of central Indiana from reaching 90 degree
today, but still can`t rule out that possibility for isolated
locations across the area.

Tight pressure gradients ahead of an approaching frontal system is
causing the breezy winds this afternoon which will largely continue
through tomorrow. Gusts of up to around 30-35 mph will be possible,
mainly for this afternoon, and slightly lower gusts again tomorrow
afternoon. The frontal system is slowly making it`s way into the
area which will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms from NW
to SW with the front stalling as it arrives. Precip could arrive to
the NW corner of the forecast area as early as Wednesday morning and
as late as the afternoon. Upon arrival/initiation, there is a
marginal risk for severe weather with these storms and could produce
damaging winds and/or large hail. This threat is prompted by weak to
moderate instability and moderate to steep lapse rates ahead of the
line as well as warm moist conditions as dew points will be
moistening into the mid to upper 60s. The threat should be isolated
to scattered and nothing widespread for our area is expected...the
threat will then wane as sunset nears.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The frontal boundary in place at the beginning of the long
term will become quasi-stationary through the end of the week as it
becomes parallel to the mean flow aloft.

The front will shift south over the weekend as ridging aloft
retrogrades into northern Mexico and upper level flow shifts to
northwest across the region into early next week with mainly dry and
seasonable conditions.

Wednesday Night through Friday Night

The boundary will become nearly stationary over the region with
additional opportunities for convection on Thursday then again
Friday afternoon and night. Low level moisture will rise for late
week with PWATs rising to 1.75 to 2 inches and combined with a
series of waves aloft traversing through the quasi-zonal flow should
provide an overall increase in convective coverage. Still can`t rule
out a potential threat for severe storms with damaging winds late
Friday despite generally poor lapse rates and an overall saturated
column as a stronger wave aloft tracks through the region. Locally
heavy downpours will remain a threat as well with the deep influx of
moisture pooling along the boundary. In the wake of the upper level
wave, the front will shift south of the Ohio River by Saturday
morning.

Highs will remain near 80 on Thursday then slide back to seasonable
levels for Friday ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with
increased clouds and convective coverage.

Saturday through Monday

Model consensus continues to align on a break for rain and storms
for much of the weekend as the front shifts south and is replaced by
high pressure passing through the Great Lakes. Will maintain low
precip chances focused especially across far southern portions of
the forecast area however with the front nearby over the Tennessee
Valley. Convective chances return Sunday night into Monday as a cold
front approaches from the northwest.

Highs will remain at seasonable levels over the weekend into early
next week ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s before gradually
warming in the 8 to 14 day range.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Impacts:

- Southerly gusts 20-28kts this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Skies will remain
hazy today from Canadian wildfire smoke with diurnal cu this
afternoon. Southerly winds are gusting as high as 28kts and then
should be dropping to around 15-20kts during the overnight. LLWS
conditions are expected tonight with a 40kt LLJ at 020, but the
surface winds may remain just high enough to limit the impacts.
Southerly wind gusts to 25kts return tomorrow afternoon with
convection chances increasing towards the late afternoon to evening
hours. Best rain/storm chances will be just beyond the TAF period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Ryan/KF
AVIATION...KF