Michigan City, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

445
FXUS63 KIWX 031813
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
213 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy conditions will persist through tonight across the entire
  area.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on
  Wednesday, with the greatest risk occurring during the
  afternoon and evening. Gusty winds in excess of 50 MPH will be
  the primary hazard, along with small to marginally severe hail
  with the strongest updrafts.

- Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible
  on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

An area of mainly high-level smoke continues to pivot around a
broad upper-level ridge across the southeastern US this
afternoon, giving way to widespread hazy conditions across much
of the area. Deep mixing this afternoon may be allowing some of
the smoke to reach the surface in a few locales, resulting in
the potential for minor impacts to sensitive populations as well
as some localized reductions in visibility although the majority
of observations are still reporting 10 SM. Otherwise, gusty SSW
winds between 25-35 MPH should persist through the remainder of
the afternoon.

A cold front will sweep across the area on Wednesday, giving way
to the next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the CWA
potentially starting as early as late tonight as the remnants of
upstream activity tracking across IL this evening approach our
far western zones. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and
intensity during the afternoon, with a few stronger storms
possible given forecast soundings suggesting fairly tall/skinny
CAPE profiles (~1500 J/kg) and 30-35 knots of deep layer
vertical shear potentially providing enough support for a few
loosely organized storm clusters. A few instances of marginally
severe hail are possible, but the more likely hazard may become
locally gusty winds 50-60 MPH given shallow inverted-v profiles
and very steep low-level lapse rates enhancing evaporational
cooling and supporting downward momentum transfer, along with
900-1000 J/kg of DCAPE. SPC has maintained a Day 2 MRGL risk for
most of the CWA, and this seems appropriate for the scenario.
Convective activity may linger well into the night w/ forcing
associated with the mid/upper level jet being very slow to exit
the area, but any severe threat would be expected to diminish
overnight.

After a quieter day on Thursday, a sharp and energetic mid level
shortwave tracking across the OH Valley will likely produce
another round of widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms.
While severe weather is not expected, latest guidance points to
a 30-50% chance of exceeding 0.5 inch of additional rainfall on
Friday, highest across our southern tier of zones.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

High clouds are streaming in ahead of ongoing convection along a
NE to SW oriented stationary front off to the west. Clouds gradually
increase in coverage through the TAF period and ceilings will
lower. Antecedent dry air initially fends off rain chances and
slow the decline of ceilings. Confidence is at least medium-high
in rain occurring at KSBN prior to the end of this TAF period.
The lingering impact of dry air is the only uncertainty. I did
remove the TS mention from KSBN as instability appears to be
meager there.

Over at KFWA, thunder is likely just beyond this TAF period as
the front nears.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...Brown