Lawrence, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS63 KIND 111400
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major flooding continues on the lower White and lower East Fork
White Rivers.

- Significant river flooding continuing through at least the next 1
to 2 weeks in some spots on the lower White and lower Wabash.

- Decreasing Cloudiness Today. Afternoon Sunshine.

- Clear and Cold tonight with near freezing lows. Some frost will be
around Saturday morning.

- Brief warming trend begins on Sunday, but cooler air returns
mid-week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

No major changes with the forecast were needed, only made minor
adjustments to the sky coverage. Clouds are slowly pushing southward
and thinning out in some spots as high pressure builds into the
region. This afternoon could see some gusts up to 20-25mph but
otherwise should be a nice, mostly sunny day with highs in the 50s.
However, with clear skies tonight temperatures will drop to near
freezing by early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure in place over
eastern KY, with a trough axis extending west across KY to Central
IL and IA. Cool NE surface flow was in place across Central Indiana.
GOES16 shows extensive mid and high cloud across Indiana. Some lower
clouds were noted in NE Indiana, drifting SW within the lower level
NE flow.  Aloft, strong ridging was found over the Rockies while a
similar amplitude trough was found over the east coast. This was
resulting in NW flow and subsidence in place from the northern
plains into the Ohio Valley.  Radar showed some lingering rain
showers in the wake of the trough over southern Indiana.

Today -

Dry weather is expected today, with decreasing cloudiness through
the day. Models suggest the upper low will continue to move east,
while the ridging to the west along with the associated subsidence
with this feature begins to build into the Ohio Valley. The
associated surface high pressure, currently centered over the
western Plains, will drift east and begin to build across Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights show drying within the column
this morning as the low departs and the subsidence begins to arrive.
Thus we will expect clouds this morning still lingering across the
area. However decreasing cloudiness through the afternoon will lead
to sunshine by the middle of the afternoon. CU will not be expected
as convective temperatures in the 70s will not be reached. Given our
cool north winds and ongoing cold air advection expected, highs will
mainly be in the lower 50s.

Tonight -

At or slightly below freezing conditions tonight will necessitate a
freeze warning tonight.

Subsidence, high pressure and a core of cold air over Central
Indiana will lead to a clear and cold night. The ridging to the west
is expected to build across the plains as the surface high pressure
system becomes centered over the mid Mississippi Valley. All of this
will result in clear skies and cold conditions, ideal for
radiational cooling. Given the expected dew points in the upper 20s,
low temperatures at or below freezing will be expected. Thus a
freeze warning will be needed for any sensitive vegetation in this
early growing season.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Saturday through Sunday.

After a chilly start to the morning with temperatures near freezing,
the pattern will begin to shift through the day with a return to
southerly surface flow by mid to late afternoon which should allow
for highs to climb into the upper 50s to near 60. Dry and quiet
weather will continue into the overnight with broad surface and
upper level ridging continuing into early Sunday. Breezy conditions
are then expected for Sunday with temperatures rising into the mid
to upper 60s and the boundary layer deepening to around 3-4kft which
will allow for the mixing down of winds of 25-30 mph. There could be
a few showers during the afternoon hours with some weak lift across
the area but the threat looks minimal with better chances Monday as
a cold front moves through.

Monday Through Thursday.

A strong upper level low pressure system will be moving across the
Canadian border Sunday night into Monday with a cold front
stretching southward into the Ohio Valley. Models have fairly good
agreement in the front passing through central Indiana during the
afternoon hours on MOnday with scattered to numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms. Instability will be marginal with dewpoints
mixing out during the day but there will enough shear to allow for
the low-end threat for a few stronger storms across southeastern
Indiana.

Cooler but still seasonable temperatures will then be in place
Tuesday through Thursday with decreasing confidence in the forecast
as models struggle to handle the synoptic pattern post-front. There
may be a return to frost Tuesday and Wednesday  nights with
overnight lows in the 30s, but there remains a lot of uncertainty as
to how favorable conditions will be for frost with the potential for
both clouds and winds remaining elevated through the overnight
hours. Precipitation chances look low mid to late week but will be
monitoring the potential for another low pressure system to move in
from the northwest towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 612 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs through 15Z
-Northerly gusts to 20kts this afternoon

Discussion:

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of
a brief period of MVFR cigs through 15Z today. Cigs are currently
MVFR at IND and BMG with conditions likely spreading to HUF by 12Z.
These low clouds will scatter out before dissipating towards 16Z
with northerly wind gusts to 20kts through the afternoon. These
stronger winds will relax after 00Z with mostly clear skies
afterwards.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White