Lawrence, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

503
FXUS63 KIND 050940
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
540 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm coverage gradually decreasing through AM hours

- Additional strong to possibly severe storms this afternoon and
  evening

- Unsettled and stormy weather continues through the end of the week
  with additional chances for scattered showers and storms this
  weekend into early next week

- Seasonable temperatures late week through the middle of next week

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Convection continues to gradually decrease in intensity with the
storms becoming increasingly outflow dominant with the outflow
boundaries now 10-20 miles ahead of the broken line. Lightning
frequency has also come down with more positive than negative
strikes which further highlights the end of stronger deep
convection. Main threat now will be monitoring the flood threat
but thoughts remain in line with the previous mesoscale
discussion.


&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Today.

For thoughts on ongoing convection, see the mesoscale discussions
above.

Going into the morning hours today the front that brought widespread
thunderstorms to central Indiana during the overnight will continue
its slow movement to the southeast but is not expected to move much
today with the parent upper level system weakening. Convection this
morning will mostly be focused on the southern portions of central
Indiana with some elevated showers and storms to the north.  There
will be little temperature difference on either side of the front
with highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 70s across north
central Indiana to around 80 in the south.

Skies will remain cloudy through the day with model soundings
showing near moist adiabatic lapse rates and saturation through much
of the column. Rain coverage will gradually decrease through the
morning with a brief uptick in the afternoon as models show some
instability during peak heating which will bring a return to more
widespread thunderstorms. With the weak lapse rates and meager
instability, not expecting any severe storms, but there will be just
enough DCAPE for an isolated stronger wind gust through the evening.

Tonight.

Rain coverage will decrease through the night with the stalling
front gradually sinking south of the forecast area by 09Z. Winds
will be dropping to near calm towards daybreak tomorrow which
combined with the residual surface moisture could bring some patchy
dense fog to the area. Cloud cover will help to limit the coverage
of the densest fog, but models are beginning to show the potential
for fog, especially across the southern counties where the rainfall
will be more widespread today. Dewpoints will be gradually falling
through the night with the loss of surface moisture advection which
will help to bring slightly cooler overnight lows in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

An unsettled pattern will continue into the first part of
the extended period as a frontal boundary meanders over the region
and is blocked by a strong surface ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will impact the Ohio Valley
through at least late Friday night before the front shifts south.
Relatively weak deep layer shear and poor lapse rates will limit but
not completely remove the severe risk in a moderately unstable
environment Friday afternoon and evening.

The most likely scenario will be a messy multicellular convective
mode pulsing in intensity with localized damaging winds and perhaps
large hail with the strongest cells as cores collapse. The greatest
potential for isolated strong to severe storms should be focused
south of I-70 where stronger instability and effective shear will
reside. The main impacts from storms though will be the potential
for locally heavy rain and flooding as PWATs climb to 1.75 to 2
inches and storms are likely slow movers with weak wind flow aloft.

Latest guidance suggest some uncertainty in the potential for
another round of showers and embedded thunder late Saturday into
Saturday night as a wave aloft approaches and aids in developing a
weak surface low. Deeper Gulf moisture should be displaced south of
central Indiana by early Saturday before potentially shifting back
north into the evening. Extended model guidance continues to show
discrepancies regarding the intensity of the upper level wave and
overall moisture return ahead of it. There is a plausible scenario
where much of the deepest moisture and instability and consequently
the bulk of the convection remain to the southwest focused over the
lower Ohio Valley. Maintaining low chances for precipitation
Saturday and Saturday night using a blended approach for these
reasons. Expect rain chances to be refined once models become better
aligned.

Sporadic precip chances will persist Sunday and Monday with a
stronger upper low and surface wave across the northern Great Lakes.
A large area of high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley with
dry and seasonable conditions beginning Tuesday and continuing for
much of the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 539 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Impacts:

-Periodic SHRA through the day with low threat for TSRA, highest at
 BMG
-Generally MVFR to IFR cigs through much of the TAF period brief
 LIFR late tonight
-IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys late tonight due to fog

Discussion:

Convection coverage has gradually lessened through the night with
little ongoing thunder. There may be some occasional TSRA, but
expect coverage to be minimal outside of BMG with SHRA the
predominant precipitation type. Rain coverage is expected to
decrease through the day with little to no additional rain towards
LAF.

MVFR to IFR cigs are expected through much of the day with shorter
stretches of VFR possible towards the afternoon hours. Some LIFR is
possible late tonight with fog likely after 09Z, especially at LAF
and IND.

Winds will generally remain light and variable through 15Z before
becoming predominately northerly at all sites but BMG where winds
will remain southerly. Winds will then drop to near calm during the
timeframe of potential fog.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Ryan/Melo
AVIATION...White