Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

838
FXUS63 KIWX 070523
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1223 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front arrives this evening with a brief increase in winds
  and falling temperatures.

- Fast moving system arrives Saturday into Saturday evening. A
  mix of precipitation is expected with some minor travel
  impacts possible.

- Temperatures will trend more below normal into next week with
  chances for weak systems clipping the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

Low clouds have won the battle today with a lack of overall WAA
in a stagnant flow. The 32 degree line has managed to make it
maybe a row of counties north since the morning update. Clearing
is arriving in western areas, but likely too little too late
with peak sun angle already gone. A cold front will arrive this
evening, sending temperatures well below freezing ending any
"natural" means to melt off the remaining ice. As the front
approaches, winds will pick up some and may gust briefly as high
as 35 to 40 mph across far N/NW areas.

Dry and somewhat below normal temperatures expected to last into
early Saturday as semi zonal flow remains in place. Yet another
wave will impact the area with a batch of Pacific moisture. A
stalled boundary will lie south of the area and make an attempt
to come north, possibly introducing a tongue of increase low
level temperatures. Hi res models are less impressed with the
northward progress of this feature and the thermal fields,
yielding lighter precip. EC/GEM/GFS all point towards a further
north solution and higher pops/QPF. Our forecast area will end
up being the battle zone in ptype with the northern third to
maybe half seeing mainly light snow (1 to 2") with a zone of
mixed precip (possibly more sleet than freezing rain depending
on how much warm air arrives) and then a cold rain further
south. There may be some impacts Saturday afternoon, but given
challenges with thermal fields and main period of concern still
almost 48 hour out no headlines are needed.

A trough will drop south across the western US late in the
weekend into next week, buckling the upper flow through the
remainder of the period. This time around we look to end up on
the cool side of the flow with highs likely remaining in the
20s and the main track of a series of system maybe grazing SE
areas at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

With the cold front moving through earlier this evening, the
strong 30 to 40 kts winds continue to relax after 3z as surface
high pressure noses into the area. Mid level cloud decks arrive
early Friday morning and continue into the day, but enough dry
air in the low levels keep flight conditions in VFR through the
forecast period. West northwest winds continue through much of
the forecast period, but will be more easterly around Friday
evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller