Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

773
FXUS63 KIND 070141
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
941 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce torrential
  downpours and strong wind gusts this afternoon and evening

- Maximum heat indices of 95-100 degrees for most of the region this
  afternoon...and again Monday over far southern central Indiana

- Following a mainly dry day Tuesday daily shower/t-storm chances
  will persist through the week amid humid and very warm conditions

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

No significant changes required to going forecast. Have made minor
adjustments to PoPs based on radar trends, but the thrust of the
forecast remains the same - showers and embedded thunderstorms
expected, diminishing with time late as instability wanes.
Relatively slow storm motions and deep, efficient warm rain
processes will make hydrologic concerns the primary issue for the
remainder of the evening, with localized minor flooding possible,
particularly in urban areas and those seeing multiple rounds of
storms.

Continue to expect low ceilings to develop late tonight as the
boundary sags into the region amid abundant low level moisture, as
well as some potential for patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Late today through Monday)...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Central Indiana will find itself along the southern edge of a rather
modest zonal pattern stretched across the northern CONUS early this
week...featuring a weak and quasi-stationary mid-level wave, slowly
drifting east over the Hoosier state.  Weak convergence from
associated subtle boundary extending in a WSW-ENE alignment will
promote showers and a few thunderstorms...which are expected to
taper off at the end of the period.

Moderate to robust southwest breezes until late today will help
maintain dewpoints around 70F...perhaps a subtle drop in humidity
across northwest zones by Monday afternoon behind the weak boundary,
while dewpoints increase to around 75F over southern Indiana Monday.
 Lows again in the low 70s for most locations tonight.  Noticeably
lower readings Monday from the combination of considerable
cloudiness and perhaps light northwest flow by late day for most
spots, with only low 80s expected north of the Indianapolis Metro
and mid-80s south of the I-70 corridor.  Maximum heat indices Monday
to range from reasonable mid to upper 80s over most northern
counties, to likely pockets of upper 90s along the CWA`s southern
tier.

Short term convective threats will be focused late today into this
evening...when the very moist air mass, sporting precipitable water
values nearing, if not exceeding 2.00 inches...will combine with
weak ascent from the slowly-approaching front to set off several
late day showers.  Mediocre mid-level lapse rates should allow only
a few taller cells/t-storms, with the Upper Wabash Valley and
northern zones the favored locale for stronger storms that might
produce a few 50-55 mph gusts by early evening.  Lack of bulk shear
will favor pulse storm mode...with probably generally poor cell
organization limiting upscale growth...although this cannot be ruled
out north of the Indianapolis Metro.  Thunderstorms should end by
late evening...although cannot rule out a few lingering showers
through the overnight.

Likely greater overall coverage of showers can be expected by Monday
afternoon...albeit with fewer/weaker t-storms with clouds
suppressing instability...and a spatial focus along/southeast of the
I-69 corridor following ahead of the slowly-crossing boundary. The
normal max/min at Indianapolis through the short term is 85/66.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with seasonal
temperatures are expected for much of the week ahead.

Tuesday through Sunday...

The models show the overall upper pattern in the coming week of
mainly a zonal flow streaming across the northern half of the United
States, with Central Indiana being located on the southern edge of
this flow. Several quick moving short waves are expected to pass
through this flow through the course of the week, providing marginal
forcing aloft. Models suggest best timing for wave at the moment
will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, Friday night into Saturday and
again on Sunday.

Conditions within the lower levels will also remain favorable for
precipitation. The frontal boundary that is expected to arrive in
Central Indiana today is shown to stall and linger within the
vicinity for much of the week. This will leave a weak trough of low
pressure at the surface in our region for much of the week ahead.
Surface dewpoints across the area are expected to remain in the
middle 60s to around 70 for the week ahead as southerly flow and
Gulf moisture remains spilling into the Ohio valley and Central
Indiana.

Thus given this pattern and the discussed features, NBM is likely to
include pops each day which is reasonable along with seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered thunderstorms early in the period

- MVFR ceilings late tonight into Monday, IFR possible

Discussion:

Ahead of an approaching front, scattered showers and storms have
developed this afternoon and evening. These may impact IND/LAF/HUF
early in the period, and some weakening showers may impact BMG later
tonight, but overall, a decreasing trend is expected after the first
couple of hours of the period with the loss of diurnal heating.

Late tonight as the boundary sags into the area, expect MVFR
ceilings to overspread the area and persist into Monday. Some IFR
cannot be ruled out, primarily at LAF, though other sites may
experience brief periods of IFR. VFR conditions will return by early
to mid afternoon at all sites as mixing promotes lifting of the
cloud bases.

Winds will generally be 10-12KT or less throughout the period
outside of convection, with southwesterly winds early becoming
northwesterly and then northerly by late in the period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield