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Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Carmel IN
National Weather Service Forecast for: Carmel IN
Issued by: National Weather Service Indianapolis, IN
Updated: 2:17 am EST Feb 7, 2025
 
Overnight

Overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Partly Cloudy

Friday

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm  in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight.
Mostly Cloudy

Saturday

Saturday: Rain likely, mainly after 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind 7 to 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Chance Rain
then Rain
Likely
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Mostly Cloudy

Sunday

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. North northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Mostly Cloudy

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Light north wind.
Mostly Cloudy

Monday

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Partly Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am.  Cloudy, with a low around 26. East northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Mostly Cloudy
then Chance
Snow
Lo 25 °F Hi 36 °F Lo 28 °F Hi 40 °F Lo 26 °F Hi 35 °F Lo 22 °F Hi 36 °F Lo 26 °F

 

Overnight
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.
Friday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight.
Saturday
 
Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Sunday
 
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. North northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Light north wind.
Monday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Monday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. East northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Tuesday
 
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. North northeast wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Wednesday
 
A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32.
Wednesday Night
 
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
 
A 30 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 30.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Carmel IN.

Weather Forecast Discussion
518
FXUS63 KIND 070721
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
221 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns Friday night into Saturday, brief freezing rain
  possible Saturday morning

- Additional chances for wintry precipitation next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 218 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Central Indiana will be rather active over the next 7-10 days as a
strong SW to NE oriented baroclinic zone will be centered over the
Ohio Valley.

Initially, this baroclinic zone has shifted southward, in
conjunction with the arrival of northerly winds and the eastern
side of a low level high early this morning. A renewed shot of
cold air advection will accompany the shift in winds, with
temperatures falling into the mid to low 20s by dawn. During the
day, a strengthening low over the mid Mississippi Valley will lead
to modest frontogenesis upstream, leading to a return of easterly
winds, curtailing the push of cold air. This should result in
near seasonal temperatures for central Indiana today with highs in
the upper 30s to low 40s for most areas. Clouds will begin to
increase again this afternoon as high pressure exits eastward and
a mid-level system approaches from the west.

Lift and moisture associated with this low level wave will arrive
tonight, mostly along an elongated warm front. This moisture looks
to be contained in the lowest 2km of the atmosphere, removing any
chances for snow with no ice nuclei present in the clouds. The
antecedent dry air mass and weak northward push of the warm front
should keep any precipitation initially over southern portions of
the state. However, as the low strengthens beneath the LLJ, greater
frontogenesis, and gradual northward movement of the front should
lead to scattered rain showers over most of central Indiana be 6A-8A
Saturday morning. There is some uncertainty on when precipitation
will begin in far southern central Indiana Friday night, of which
could begin as drizzle due to the lack of deep low level saturation.

Surface temperatures will be at to just below freezing during
precipitation onset Saturday morning, leading to some concern for a
brief 2-4 hour period of freezing rain from a Bloomington to
Columbus line on northward. Luckily, the saturation along this
frontal boundary is vary shallow, keeping light precipitation rates,
and therefor any ice accumulation minimal. Greatest freezing rain
amounts should remain below 0.05", mitigating many impacts, but
isolated slick spots on low traffic roads, bridges and overpasses
are possible Saturday morning.

As we reach midday on Saturday, a surface low should begin to
develop increasing the overall lift in the atmosphere. This should
also strengthen the temperature and wind gradient over the state
pushing surface temperatures above freezing in all locations, even
nearing 50 degrees in far southern central Indiana. This greater
source of low level lift is expected to lead to showers with periods
of moderate rainfall rates at times Saturday afternoon and evening;
greatest coverage would be along and south of I-70. By Saturday
night, all rain is expected to be east of central Indiana, with a
shift back towards NW winds and a subsequent drop in temperatures.
Expect lows in the mid to low 20s once again Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 218 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Sunday through Monday:

As mentioned in the short term, a strong baroclinic zone will be
present across the Ohio Valley over the next week. By Sunday, this
will once again be pushed southward, removing precipitation chances
through Monday morning. This baroclinic zone will still be active,
but ensemble guidance is in agreement with the rain remaining along
and south of the Ohio River. North of this baroclinic zone (central
Indiana), temperatures are expected to be near seasonal, leading to
highs in the mid 30s to low 40s both Sunday and Monday.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night:

A more substantial upper level system looks to impact the Ohio
Valley late Monday through Tuesday night with models continuing to
show agreement in the overall synoptic pattern. This pattern
consists of a relatively deep surface low moving somewhere across
the Tennessee Valley to southern Ohio Valley with central Indiana
remaining in the cold sector of the system, including modest
northeasterly surface flow. This area is known as the cold conveyor
belt, and with enough moisture, should lead to periods of snow.
Although there is good general ensemble agreement, variances in
specifics like QPF and timing is leading to a wide range in
potential outcomes for central Indiana regarding specific snowfall
amounts with this system. There is also potential for shifts in the
overall track, of which would change snow expectations. Keep
monitoring forecast updates in the coming days as details become
more apparent, and plan on the potential for Tuesday travel hazards
in the event moderate to heavy snowfall comes to fruition.

Wednesday through Friday:

Ensemble members continue the active pattern along the baroclinic
zone with another wave developing and passing through the Ohio
Valley sometime Wednesday through Thursday. At this time, ensemble
variance is too high to resolve much more than chances for
precipitation, but this will be another system to keep an eye on in
the coming days. Also, given the large temperature gradients within
this baroclinic zone, slight shifts in the overall pattern could
result in large forecast temperature swings. As of this forecast
update, the expectation is for seasonal temperatures late next week,
but this could change depending on how the aforementioned systems
evolve.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1219 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Some mid and high clouds will move through the terminals today and
tonight, otherwise, good confidence in VFR flying conditions
through the TAF period

A weak back door cold front will move through overnight. This will
result in west and southwest winds to 10 knots to shift to the
northwest and become light.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...MK
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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