Elgin, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS63 KLOT 212024
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
224 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions through early to mid evening with lingering
  light precipitation, primarily light rain or drizzle.

- Temperatures remaining safely above freezing through tonight
  will prevent any re-freeze issues.

- Moderating temperatures for Sunday, then turning colder again
  Tuesday through the Thanksgiving Holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Through Tonight:

The threat for impactful winter weather has pretty much come to an
end, as temperatures have warmed safely above freezing and the
snow has mixed with or changed to light rain/drizzle. The minor
exception to this is reduced visibility in snow and patchy slush
on roads south of I-80 as of this writing. With conditions also
expected to be steadily improving in these areas, we`ll allow the
winter weather advisory to expire as planned for Kankakee, Iroquois,
and our northwest Indiana counties. Opted to cancel the wind advisory
that was in effect given continued under-performance and near
term forecast soundings suggesting gusts generally up to 40 mph
through the early evening. Sporadic gusts up to 45 mph are
probable across interior northern Illinois and perhaps briefly
near the lake this evening when flow turns more northerly. Winds
will then steadily diminish through the night.

Steady light rain will likely hang on into the early evening for
locales near and west of I-39, and also near/south of US-24. For
the rest of the area, saturation depths may increase enough to
wring patchy light rain or drizzle out of the expansive stratus
deck. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s to around 40F,
so we`re still not expecting any re-freeze issues.

Castro

Friday through Thanksgiving Day:

Aside from some lingering lake effect rain showers across parts
of Porter county IN, dry but cloudy weather is expected for
Friday. Temperatures during the day should be seasonable, with
highs generally in the mid 40s. However, with continued breezy
northwesterly winds (gusting at times to 25 mph) it will certainly
feel like a chilly day. High temperatures will remain similar on
Saturday as cloud cover hangs on across the area. The notable
difference on Saturday will be the lighter wind speeds expected as
a weak surface ridge shifts into the area.

Conditions will turn warmer for Sunday as the winds shift out of
the south following the eastward passage of the weak surface
ridge, and in advance of the next surface low quickly taking shape
across the central Plains. Increasing low-level warm air
advection on these southerly winds will thus foster a decent jump
in temperatures, with highs likely topping out around (or just
above) the 50 degree mark. These mild conditions are expected to
persist Sunday night into at least Monday morning as the area
remains in the warm sector of an approaching surface low and cold
front.

Timing differences continue to be noted with the passage of the
quickly approaching surface low (and it`s associated cold front)
on Monday. In spite of this, the primary message of the weather
turning colder late Monday into Tuesday remains of high
confidence. What remains of lower confidence for Monday is our
local chances for rain with the front. Low-level moisture is
expected to gradually ramp-up along the cold front later Monday
afternoon and evening. However, with the potential for a faster
passage of this cold front during the day on Monday, the best
chances for rain could end up largely remaining to our east.
Nevertheless, with a decent amount of spread noted with the timing
of this front, we have opted to continue the low chances (15-40%)
for rain offer up from the NBM.

A cold airmass will work in over the area through the remainder of
the week. This will result in a return to highs in the 30s and
overnight lows in the 20s. Later next week into the Holiday weekend
there are also some strong signs for a period of colder conditions
as a large upper trough digs over the Great Lakes. This could
result in highs potentially remaining below freezing for a period
during the Holiday weekend. Also with increased Holiday travel
later next week, and expectation for a somewhat active weather
pattern across the central CONUS, we will have to keep an eye on
the potential for more rain and/or snow chances near the area.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

- SN will change to -RADZ early-mid afternoon, with improving
  VSBY
- CIGS expected to lift to MVFR this afternoon and generally
  persist MVFR through the TAF cycle
- Gusty west winds will veer to more northwest to north-
  northwesterly later this afternoon

Snow is expected to transition to light rain or drizzle this
afternoon with a corresponding increase in VSBY up MVFR. VSBY
should increase to VFR late this afternoon or early this evening
as drizzle and/or light rain end. Expansive area of MVFR CIGS
upstream, so anticipating them to hang around through much of
the TAF cycle. There is some threat that CIGS could build back
down IFR tonight, but until confidence increases in IFR and
timing can be better pinned down, opted to hang onto MVFR CIGS
tonight.

Westerly winds have been under-performing this morning with
gusts mostly below 30kt. Still anticipate winds to pick up some
this afternoon with gusts over 30kt later this afternoon into
early this evening. Gustiness is expected to abate this evening,
but winds should become gusty again Friday morning.

- Izzi

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     ILZ023-ILZ033.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ this
     afternoon for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.

LM...Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the IL and IN
     nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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