Burley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

047
FXUS65 KPIH 230011
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
611 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Wind Advisory ends at 5 PM MDT today. Winter Weather
  Advisory for the mountains and highlands ends at 6 PM MDT
  today.

- Cold overnight temperatures will bring areas of frost to the
  valleys, including most of the Snake River plain and eastern
  Magic Valley.

- Thunderstorms continue to be a slight chance level threat
  until midnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Thunderstorms are already developing, dropping abundant amounts
of pea-sized hail. Wind associated with the low currently moving
through Clark County is masking outflow wind, with gusts
routinely reaching 35 to 40 mph this afternoon. The wind is
still expected to diminish in the southern Snake River plain
around 5 PM MDT this evening, so expect the Lake Wind Advisory
to just expire. Same with the Winter Weather Advisory for the
mountains. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through to
midnight, but much lower intensity after 6 PM MDT and by then
temperatures should be warm enough that the snow has stopped.
Though it will pick up tonight in light amounts as shower
coverage shrinks.

Continued instability with left over moisture will bring back
showers for Mon afternoon, but the overall stability is not as
unstable as the previous day and available moisture will drop
tremendously during the late morning hours as the low continues
its eastward trek. Tuesday will also see afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. There is no tremendous tap of moisture developing
so expect dry thunderstorms for this period. Wed has zero threat
of convection as the atmosphere continues to dry.

Temperatures are actually a more serious problem tonight. This
winter storm has brought in much colder air with a prolonged
period of northerly airflow. With wind conditions substantially
calmer than the night before, temperatures will drop a solid 10
to 15 degrees in locations underneath the inversion. Freeze
conditions (below 32F) are expected in a lot of locations in the
central Idaho mountains, but also in localized areas of the
Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley. The largest areas
were from the city of Rexburg northward, and then the north end
of the American Fall Reservoir, in places like Springfield,
Aberdeen, and Sterling. Since the below-freezing areas were
limited, no Freeze Warning was issued. However, there areas
between 33F and 37F temperatures for lows were quite widespread,
even though the formatter preferred the term "areas." Majorities
of each of the five low elevation zones showed overnight lows
colder than 37F. Abundant sunshine by Mon afternoon should boost
temperatures from the lower 60s in this region to around 70F. In
turn, the warmer start to the evening should prevent frost,
except for the Rexburg area again. Tue will see continued
warming, into the middle 70s. Wed will have temperatures back
above normal with the sunshine and strong summer sun.

Wind will remain gusty, but will weaken quite a bit as
inversions in the atmospheric profile return. Wind will not be
around on Mon afternoon as the upper level ridge surges back
over the northern Rockies. Gusty afternoon wind should return
Wed afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Weak upper level troughing will do little more than support
gusty wind conditions, as the flow is mainly a dry westerly
flow. This will keep away any monsoon intrusion this far north.
By Sat and Sun summer will be back in force with low elevation
temperatures warming back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Beginning to slowly see some clearing across the area but some
scattered showers/storms remain in place around KIDA and KDIJ
for a few more hours. After the sun goes down, precip should be
mostly finished throughout all of eastern Idaho with skies
clearing as low pressure moves away from the region. Winds
remain breezy but will become more light and variable as we get
into the overnight hours and continuing into the day on Monday
with mostly clear skies for much of the day tomorrow.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Conditions dry and skies clear tonight as today`s low pressure
system pulls away from the region. Longwave troughing will remain in
place for most of the upcoming week across the western US, but it`s
going to be embedded shortwave troughs in this pattern that have the
potential to bring episodic increases in wind and thunderstorm
potential. One such opportunity arrives Tuesday afternoon and
evening (although with little wind...more showers/storms), and a
second still appears to target the Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
timeframe favoring wind this time but limited thunderstorm
potential. Outside of these features, southwest flow will support a
warming and drying trend all week, with afternoon RH values dropping
back to 15-25% most days. Still watching the second shortwave
feature (starting Thursday) for an opportunity for stronger winds to
overlap those drier RH values leading to elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions for areas where finer fuels are receptive.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...KSmith