Makaha, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

891
FXHW60 PHFO 181343
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
343 AM HST Wed Jun 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will remain
in place with moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the
forecast through Friday. Trade wind speeds will increase slightly
this weekend, becoming breezy to locally windy by Sunday. Brief
periods of passing showers will continue this week with drier
conditions expected this weekend, followed by increasing shower
trends from Monday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Bands of clouds are shown on the latest satellite imagery this
morning riding the easterly trade winds into the windward
mountain slopes of each island. These clouds will continue to
produce brief periods of showers mainly over the windward and
mountain slopes favoring the overnight to early morning hours. A
few bands of high level cirrus, ice crystal clouds, are drifting
across the island chain this morning; likely enhancing sunrise and
sunset colors.

The wind pattern remains moderate to locally breezy easterly trade
winds through Friday. The high pressure ridge will strengthen over
the islands this weekend, producing additional drying trends
(lower humidity levels), and more stable conditions aloft. Expect
breezy to locally windy trade winds by Sunday. The combination of
drier humidity levels and stronger winds may elevate fire weather
concerns from late Sunday morning through the afternoon hours.

Looking into the cloud and shower activity for the next seven days
we continue to see subtle shifts in the day to night diurnal
rainfall pattern through Friday. Overall a fairly stable
conditions will prevail for the most part through Thursday with
some periods of passing showers mainly in the overnight to early
morning hours as a few unsettled passing cloud bands are lifted up
and rain over windward island mountains. One wrinkle in the
latest forecast guidance is the presence of an easterly wave,
shown on 700 mb streamlines, moving into the islands on the trade
winds from Thursday through Friday. Model cross sections suggest
this passing trough will lift the boundary layer with temperature
inversion rising into the 8,000 to 9,000 foot range. At this
level, deeper clouds will likely increasing shower trends across
all islands with some of the stronger showers drifting into the
typically drier leeward areas. Rainfall amounts will still remain
on the low side with the best chances for shower activity
occurring during the typical overnight to early morning hours.

More stable trends develop this weekend as the ridge builds back
into the Hawaii Region, decreasing island cloud cover and shower
trends. Finally, expect a subtle increase in shower trends by
early next week as a combination of upper (500 mb) and lower level
(700 mb) troughing move into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through
Friday. Shower activity will be limited to windward and mountain
areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations along
north and east slopes of Maui and the Big Island. These low cloud
ceilings will likely diminish later this morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over and
south through west of island mountains. These stronger winds and
turbulent conditions will likely continue through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of Hawaii will slowly move eastward and drive
moderate to locally strong trades across the local waters. The
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for typically windier waters and
channels near Maui and the Big Island has been extended through
Thursday. Trade winds are forecast to strengthen this weekend,
where other zones may need to be added to the SCA.

A small, long period, south swell is starting to slowly filter in
early this morning and will peak later tonight into Thursday
providing a slight boost in surf along south facing shores
through the weeks end. Rough and choppy conditions along east
facing shores will pick up a notch or two over the weekend and persist
into early next week. Surf will remain nearly flat along north
facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Almanza